Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet WNBA Playoffs Semifinals Game 1

A’ja Wilson and the defending champion Las Vegas Aces needed three games in the first round of the playoffs to advance past the Indiana Fever, but they are favored to win the WNBA Finals (+190) entering their semifinal series with the Golden State Valkyries.

Golden State (the No. 2 seed) also went the distance in Round 1, erasing a double-digit second-half deficit against the Dallas Wings in Game 3 to advance. The Valkyries have the No. 1 defense in the league, but it hasn’t helped them against this Aces team.

The Valkyries were 0-3 against the No. 3-seeded Aces in the regular season, and they’ve won just one of the seven meetings between these teams since the start of the 2025 campaign. So, it makes sense that the Aces are slight favorites on the road in Game 1.

Las Vegas was dominant on the road in the regular season, winning 16 of 22 games, and it closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak.

This should end up being a long series, as oddsmakers have set these teams as the No. 1 and No. 2 squads in the odds to win the title. So, the winner of this series should be favored to win the Finals later on this month.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 on Sunday afternoon.

Aces vs. Valkyries Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Aces -1.5 (-108)
Valkyries +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Aces: -118
Valkyries: -102

Total

161.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Aces vs. Valkyries How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC, Peacock
Series: Tied 0-0

Aces vs. Valkyries Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

NaLyssa Smith – out
Dana Evans – out
Stephanie Talbot – questionable

Valkyries Injury Report

None to report

Aces vs. Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bets

Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bet

Gabby Williams 18+ Points (-144)

Gabby Williams had a strong 2026 regular season, but she’s picked things up even more in the playoffs.

Williams had 20, 36 and 19 points in her three games against the Wings, taking at least 16 shots in every game. For the series, Williams shot 46.4 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from 3 while taking 18.7 field goal attempts per game.

During the regular season, Williams had two games with 20 or more points (one with 27) against the Aces, and Las Vegas did finish the campaign ranking sixth in opponent points per game.

If Williams’ usage continues to remain as high as it did against Dallas, she’s a solid bet to put up 18 or more points at home in Game 1.

Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m betting on the defending champs to take Game 1:

The Aces have dominated the Valkyries in the 2026 season, going 3-0 straight up with wins by 19, five and 10.

While the Aces had to go to a third game in the first round, they played a true WNBA Finals contender in the Fever, who have two MVP candidates in Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark.

Meanwhile, the Valkyries’ struggles on offense were evident in Game 3 against Dallas, and the team nearly lost to a squad that was dead last in the odds to win the WNBA Finals entering the postseason.

Golden State also only had one day off from that game to this Game 1 clash, putting it at a rest disadvantage. The Valkyries were elite at home in the regular season (17-5) and are 2-0 in the playoffs, but the Aces won 16 of their 22 games on the road in the 2026 campaign.

A’ja Wilson and Co. finished the regular season with the No. 2 offense in the league, and they are equipped to handle this league-best Golden State defense. With the Valkyries struggling with the Wings in Round 1, I’m worried about them hanging with a much better Aces squad with a ton of playoff equity.

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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