Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Third Round

A pair of top-20 ranked players face off in the third round of the U.S. Open, as American Tommy Paul (No. 20) takes on Alexander Bublik (No. 15) for the fifth time in their respective careers.

The last time these two met?

The third round of last year’s U.S.Open.

So, it’s fitting that a year later they’re back in the same spot.

Paul has just one fourth-round appearance in a Grand Slam this year, but he’s favored to win this match. Bublik, who made the fourth round at Wimbledon and the Australian Open in 2026, has won six of his seven sets in this tournament and is looking for a second straight appearance in the fourth round of the U.S. Open.

Let’s dive right into the odds, each player’s history at this tournament and my prediction for this match.

Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Alexander Bublik: +139
Tommy Paul: -176

Total

39.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 4
Time: 12:30 p.m.
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul History and U.S. Open Performance

This third-round match will be the fifth time that Bublik and Paul have met in their careers.

Paul has the edge in the series, 3-1, but Bublik ended Paul’s run at the U.S. Open in the third round in 2025. So, it’s interesting that they find themselves in the same spot in 2026.

In their other meeting in a Grand Slam, Paul defeated Bublik in straight sets at Wimbledon back in 2024. After facing off twice in 2025, this is the first meeting between these two players this year.

Alexander Bublik

Bublik has just one fourth-round appearance at the U.S. Open (2025) and one Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance (the 2025 French Open) in his career.

The No. 15-ranked player in this tournament has two fourth-round appearances in Grand Slams in 2026, but he was also a first-round exit in the French Open.

In this year’s U.S. Open, Bublik defeated J.J. Wolf in the first round in four sets before a smooth straight-set win over Adrian Mannarino in Round 2.

Tommy Paul

Paul is looking for revenge after last year’s third-round exit against Bublik, and he’s made the third round of the U.S. Open in five straight appearances, reaching the fourth round in two of his previous four.

The American hasn’t made a quarterfinal in a Grand Slam since the 2025 French Open, but he did make the fourth round of the Australian Open earlier this year.

In the 2026 U.S. Open, Paul defeated Coleman Wong in four sets in Round 1 and Dino Prižmić in four sets in Round 2.

Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction and Pick

Oddsmakers are giving Paul the edge in this match, but I think there’s value in betting on Bublik as the underdog, especially when it comes to the set spread.

Bublik is -150 to cover the +1.5 set spread, meaning bettors would win the wager if Bublik wins the match or is able to take Paul to five sets.

In their previous U.S. Open meeting, Bublik won in five sets, and he’s only lost once to Paul in straight sets (Wimbledon 2024) in four meetings.

Paul has already dropped a set in each of opening round matches, and the American hasn’t exactly had a ton of success at the U.S. Open, never reaching a single quarterfinal.

I think there’s a chance Bublik pulls off the upset – especially after his dominant Round 2 showing – but I like the cushion of taking him as an underdog in the set spread.

Pick: Alexander Bublik +1.5 Sets (-150 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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