Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Semifinals

No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev had never won a Grand Slam in his career prior to the 2026 French Open, but he’s now just one win away from playing in his third straight Grand Slam final.

The 29-year-old has won three straight matches in straight sets, and he’s heavily favored in Friday’s semifinal against Karen Khachanov, who took down Alexander Blockx in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

There is a ton of history between Zverev and Khachanov, as they’ve faced off nine times before with the No. 1 seed winning six of them. Zverev has only had to face one ranked player so far in the U.S. Open, and he remains the favorite to win the tournament.

Khachanov last made the U.S. Open semifinals back in 2022, and he’s currently on his best run at a Grand Slam since the 2023 Australian Open. The 30-year-old did beat Zverev last year, but his other two wins over the German came back in 2018 and 2019.

Can he pull off an upset on Friday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semifinals and my prediction for their first-ever meeting in the U.S. Open.

Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Alexander Zverev: -487
Karen Khachanov: +358

Total

37.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 11
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov History and U.S. Open Performance

Friday’s semifinal will be the 10th meeting between Zverev and Khachanov all time, and the No. 1 seed holds a 6-3 advantage.

This semifinal match will be the first meeting between the two in 2026, and they split their 2025 meetings with Khachanov snapping a three-match winning streak for Zverev before losing to him in the 2025 Cincinnati Open.

They last faced off in a Grand Slam back in 2018, with Zverev winning in five sets in the French Open.

Alexander Zverev

Can Zverev make a third straight Grand Slam final?

The 2026 U.S. Open has been far from a perfect showing from the No. 1 seed, but he’s now won three straight matches in straight sets.

Zverev had some nervous moments early in this tournament, needing five sets to take down both Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys in the first tow rounds.

But, he dominated No. 21-seed Luciano Darderi in Round 4, winning 6-2, 6-2, 7-6. He then handled Botic van de Zandschulp, 6-2, 7-5, 6-1 on Wednesday night.

Zverev has several quarterfinal or better appearances at the U.S. Open in his career, and he’s got a Grand Slam in his pocket in 2026 after winning the French Open.

He remains the favorite to win the tournament on the men’s side.

Karen Khachanov

The 30-year-old Khachanov is playing in his first Grand Slam semifinal since the 2023 Australian Open, and he last made a U.S. Open semifinal back in 2022.

Khachanov struggled in previous years at the U.S. Open, getting bounced in the first round in 2023 and 2024 and the second round in 2025. In this year’s tournament, the Russian defeated No. 3-seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in Round 2 and No. 14-seed Learner Tien in Round 4 before a quarterfinal win over No. 28 Alexander Blockx.

He’s never won a Grand Slam, but this is the third semifinal appearance of Khachanov’s career, and he did beat Zverev back in 2025.

Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction and Pick

Zverev got off to a slow start in the U.S. Open, but he’s shown why he’s the No. 1-ranked player in the tournament, winning his last three matches in 31, 31 and 27 games.

He and Khachanov have a lengthy history that includes a 2025 loss in three sets, but I have a hard time betting on the 30-year-old to pull off an upset in this match.

Khachanov did have a huge upset win over the No. 3-seeded Auger-Aliassime, but his path to the semis hasn’t been extremely tough, and Blockx was forced to retire in their quarterfinal match on Wednesday.

After all, Khachanov has just one win over Zverev in five matches since 2021, and he hasn’t won a single set against him in a loss.

I’m going to bet on Zverev to reach a third straight Grand Slam final, but I don’t want to lay the moneyline price – there’s zero value in doing that.

Instead, I’m going to take him to cover the set spread (-1.5) in this match. This bet allows Zverev to drop a set and still win the bet, and if he wins in straight sets it’ll cash extremely stress free. Zverev is +140 to win in straight sets if you want to take a more aggressive approach.

Pick: Zverev -1.5 Set Spread (-215 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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