Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Women's Final

Aryna Sabalenka is favored against Elena Rybakina in the women's U.S. Open final. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Aryna Sabalenka is on the brink of history. With a win on Saturday, she would become just the third woman in U.S. Open history to win the Grand Slam three straight years. She won the U.S. Open in both 2024 and 2025, and now Elena Rybakina is the only one standing between her and history.

For Rybakina she's seeking her third career Grand Slam and her second of 2026 after winning the Australian Open earlier this year.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Championship match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka -134 (57.26% implied probability)
• Elena Rybakina +114

Total Games

• OVER 22.5 (-118)
• UNDER 22.5 (-112)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 12
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina: History and U.S. Open Performance

These two have faced each other 17 times before. Sabalenka is 10-7 in those matches, including a 6-4, 6-3 win at this year's Miami Open semifinals.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has dominated at the U.S. Open throughout her career. In fact, she has made it at least to the semifinals in five straight years, including back-to-back wins. She has a career win rate of 85% at this tournament, her highest win rate at the four Grand Slams.

She defeated Camila Osorio, Polina Iatchenko, Kamilla Rakhimova, Taylor Townsend, Linda Noskova, and Jessica Pegula en route to the final. Her only lost set came against Noskova in the quarter-final.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina won this year's Australian Open, her second career Grand Slam victory. Her first came at the 2022 edition of Wimbledon. Prior to this year, her best finish at a U.S. Open was a fourth-round appearance at last year's tournament.

She defeated Thea Frodin, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Yuliia Starodubtseva, Naomi Osaka, Qinwen Zheng, and Coco Gauff en route to the final.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina

I think there's some great value on Sabalenka in this match.

Rybakina has already needed three sets to win her last two matches, and now she has to face her toughest competition to date. Sabalenka has also won the two most recent matches between them, including a win earlier this season at the Miami Open.

Sabalenka is in peak form and I'm willing to bet she won't let history escape her grasp on Saturday.

Pick: Sabalenka -134 via FanDuel

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