Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Semifinals

No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka is back in the U.S. Open semifinals for the sixth year in a row, and she’s two wins away from defending her title and winning for the third straight year at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Sabalenka will take on a familiar opponent in the semifinals on Thursday, as No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula rallied back from losing the first set in her quarterfinal matchup against Emma Navarro to advance to the semifinals.

Pegula and Sabalenka have faced off 13 times in their respective careers, though Sabalenka has won nine of those meetings. This is the third year in a row that Pegula and Sabalenka have met in the semifinal round or later at the U.S. Open.

Sabalenka won last year’s semifinal match in three sets 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, and she beat Pegula in straight sets in the 2024 U.S. Open final.

Both players have been pretty dominant in this tournament, as Sabalenka dropped a set for the first time in the quarterfinals in her win over Linda Noskova while Pegula has dropped just two sets across five matches.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history at the U.S. Open and my prediction for this semifinal showdown.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka: -182
Jessica Pegula: +148

Total

22.5 (Over -115/Under -130)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula History and U.S. Open Performance

There is a ton of history between these two players, so I’m going to attempt to lay things out in simple fashion:

All-Time Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 9, Pegula 4
U.S. Open Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 2, Pegula 0
Hard Courts Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 6, Pegula 3

2026 Matches: They’ve met once in 2026 at the Berlin Tennis Open, Pegula won that match in three sets.

In addition to all of that, these two have gone to a third set in each of their last four meetings against each other. Sabalenka lost to Pegula in their first-ever meeting back in 2020 at the Cincinnati Open, but she rattled off four wins in a row in straight sets before Pegula beat her again in 2023. Three of Pegula’s four wins over Sabalenka have come in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has dominated at the U.S. Open in recent years, winning two straight titles while at least making the semifinals in six straight appearances. She’s an elite player on hard courts, and that should help her in this match with Pegula, who she’s beaten six times in their nine meetings on hard courts, including twice in this event.

The quarterfinal round against Noskova was a tough one for Sabalenka, as she went to a tiebreak in the third set. The No. 1 seed had not dropped a set through the first four rounds, and no player in those rounds won more than four games in a set against her.

Pegula – like Noskova – is a much tougher test for Sabalenka as she looks to win her third straight U.S. Open.

Jessica Pegula

Pegula has had a ton of success at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, reaching the quarterfinals in 2022, the final in 2024 and the semifinals in 2025. However, Sabalenka has been in the way the last two years, knocking her out in straight sets in 2024 and three sets in 2025.

The 32-year-old has put together an interesting 2026, reaching three Grand Slam quarterfinals, including the Australian Open semis. However, she did lose in Round 1 in the French Open.

So far in the 2026 U.S. Open, Pegula has dropped just two sets (one Leylah Fernandez in Round 3 and one to Navarra in the quarterfinals). She made quick work of No. 16 seed Sorana Cirstea in Round 4, and rallied back from a one-set deficit against Navarro earlier this week.

Pegula has never won a Grand Slam, but she’s getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers (+148 to win) in this match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction and Pick

I’m shocked to see such a low total in this match, especially since Pegula and Sabalenka have faced off so many times in their respective careers.

Both players needed a third set in the quarterfinals to advance, as Sabalenka played 35 games and Pegula played 28, which would have easily cleared this total. In their two previous U.S. Open matches, Sabalenka won 7-7, 7-5 (24 games) in 2024 and 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 (29 games) in 2025.

Overall, these two have gone to a third set in five of their 13 meetings all time, including the last four. Pegula won their lone meeting in 2026 at the Berlin Tennis Open 6-4, 6-7, 6-0.

I think there is a real case to make for both of these stars to win, so I’m going to take the OVER in total games. They have cleared this total six times in their previous meetings, including in five of their last six dating back to the 2024 U.S. Open.

Pick: OVER 22.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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