Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Third Round

If the first two rounds are any indication, Aryna Sabalenka is in peak form and is going to make a deep run at becoming just the third woman to win three straight U.S. Open titles. She cruised past her second-round opponent, Polina Iatcenko, losing just two games throughout the match.

She is once again a massive favorite in the third round when she takes on Kamilia Rakhimova. Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Friday afternoon match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka -2100 (95.45% implied probability)
Kamilia Rakhimova +1000

Total Games

OVER 18.5 (+102)
UNDER 18.5 (-134)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova How to Watch

Date: Friday, September 4
Time: 11:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN3

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova: History and U.S. Open Performance

These two have faced each other three times before. Sabalenka has won all three matches, including beating her 6-1, 6-0 at the 2025 French Open.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has dominated at the U.S. Open throughout her career. In fact, she has made it at least to the semifinals in five straight years, including back-to-back wins. She has a career win rate of 85% at this tournament, her highest win rate at the four Grand Slams.

She defeated both Camila Osorio and Polina Iatcenko both in straight sets in the first two rounds.

Kamilla Rakhimova

This is the first time since her first U.S. Open appearance in 2021 that Rakhimova has advanced to the third round at the U.S. Open. She had been defeated in the first round for four straight years from 2022-2025.

She upset the No. 27 seed, Barbora Krejcikova, 7-6, 6-2 in the first round and then followed that up with a 6-3, 6-0 win against Oksana Selekhmeteva in the second round.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova Prediction and Best Bet

I do not doubt that Sabalenka will win this match, but I think there's some value in betting on Rakhimova to put up a fight. Not only has she looked impressive through the first two rounds of this tournament, but she also had impressive wins against Venus Williams and Katerina Siniakova at the National Bank Open last month.

Sabalenka's back-to-back U.S. Open titles and her dominant win in the first two rounds have led to her being slightly overvalued in the betting market ahead of round three.

I'll back Rakhimova to cover the game spread in this third round match.

Pick: Kamilla Rakhimova +6.5 games (-125) via FanDuel

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