Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Sept. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers matchup on Friday.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is an interesting prop target on Friday. / Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have a chance to build their lead in the AL West as they take on the Texas Rangers on Friday night.

Texas is five games back in the division, but it has just 1.5 games to make up in the wild card race to catch the Seattle Mariners.

This game has some interesting pitchers, as Hunter Brown (2.34 ERA) takes on Merrill Kelly (3.24 ERA). 

Oddsmakers have set Houston as road favorites, but can they pick up a win after a rough series against the New York Yankees?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s game.  

Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+123)
• Rangers +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline

• Astros: -150
• Rangers: +123

Total

• 7.5 (Over +101/Under -123)

Astros vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Hunter Brown (10-7, 2.34 ERA)
• Texas: Merrill Kelly (11-7, 3.24 ERA)

Astros vs. Rangers How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: 8:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• How to Watch (TV): CW33 and SCHN
• Astros record: 77-64
• Rangers record: 72-69

Astros vs. Rangers Best MLB Prop Bets

Rangers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Merrill Kelly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Kelly has struck out 149 batters in 164.0 innings of work in the 2025 season, but he’s failed to clear this prop in half of his starts since joining the Rangers.

Houston is averaging just 7.91 K’s per game in the 2025 season, which is seventh in MLB. Kelly is just in the 43rd percentile in whiff percentage and the 50th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2025. 

He’s a fade candidate on Friday night. 

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

This pitching matchup could be a perfect spot to bet the UNDER, and I shared why in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – earlier on Friday: 

A solid pitching matchup will take place in Texas on Friday night, as the Houston Astros aim to hold on to their lead in the AL West.

Houston is 3.5 games up on the Seattle Mariners and five games up on the Texas Rangers heading into this weekend series with the Rangers. Texas is just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot, and it’s looking to make a final playoff push in September.

In this matchup, Astros All-Star Hunter Brown (2.34 ERA) takes on Merrill Kelly (3.24 ERA). 

This season, the Rangers are one of the best UNDER teams in the league (77-62-2), as they’ve posted the No. 1 team ERA in MLB. Houston is 69-64-8 to the UNDER, and it’s just 22nd in MLB in runs scored in 2025. 

Brown hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last seven starts while Kelly has a 3.31 ERA in six starts since being dealt to Texas at the deadline.

With both of these teams ranking in the bottom half of the league in several offensive statistics, I think the UNDER is a great bet in this series opener on Friday night. 

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-123 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Regardless of the outcome of your wager,DraftKings will add eight $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account and award one promo code for a discounted NFL Sunday ticket subscription.