Atlanta Falcons Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Falcons Are Too Talented for Low Win Total)

The Atlanta Falcons had plenty of opportunities to be crowned kings of the NFC South in 2025, but continuously fell short. They lost to both the Colts and Panthers in overtime in back-to-back weeks, and lost to the Patriots because of a missed extra point. If they could have turned one of those close losses into a win, they would have won the division at 9-8.

Instead, they missed the playoffs to extend their postseason drought, resulting in them firing head coach Raheem Morris and hiring former Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. The Falcons added to their roster this offseason, including bringing in Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback to compete for the starting gig against Michael Penix Jr.

Let's dive into their projected win total for the 2026 campaign.

2026 Atlanta Falcons Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 6.5 (-140)
UNDER 6.5 (+120)

Their projected win total is set at 6.5, with the OVER set at -140 odds. That means they have a 58.33% implied probability of going 7-10 or better.

In my NFL season betting preview, 32 Bets for 32 Teams, I made the case for not only betting on them to go OVER 6.5, but to get even more aggressive and bet the OVER on their alternate win total of 7.5:

The Falcons might be the team with the highest level of variance in terms of potential outcomes this season. If they don't get good quarterback play, if their linebackers don't improve, if Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees can't find a way to scheme an offense to take advantage of Bijan Robinson and Drake London, then they're going to be one of the worst teams in the conference. In the same breath, if those things all go in their favor, they could win the division.

The bottom line is they have plenty of talent on offense and found a pass-rush on defense last year. They also have a new head coach who has been proven to lead bad rosters to a better record than they deserve. With their win total at 7.5 with the OVER at plus-money, I'll once again put my faith in the Falcons.

Pick: OVER 7.5 Wins (+136) via DraftKings

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Unlock $100 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet and you will receive $150 in bonus bets no matter what.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google