Baltimore Ravens Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Ravens Have Highest Win Total in AFC)

Everything that could have gone wrong for the Baltimore Ravens went wrong during the 2025 NFL season. They had one of the more injured rosters in the NFL, and they weren't able to recover from a 1-5 start, eventually finishing with an 8-9 record and missing the postseason completely.

As a result, the Ravens decided to move on from long-time head coach John Harbaugh, who had led the team since 2008, including winning a Super Bowl in the 2012-13 season.

Jesse Minter, the former defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, has taken over as head coach in what was one of the most attractive coaching openings in recent history. Will the Ravens bounce back and re-establish themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL? The betting market seems to think so.

2026 Baltimore Ravens Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 11.5 Wins (+115)
UNDER 11.5 Wins (-140)

The Ravens are one of only two teams in the NFL with a projected win total of 11.5, the other being the Los Angeles Rams. The OVER is juiced to -125 for the Rams, but +115 for the Ravens, meaning Baltimore has the second-highest win total in the NFL but the highest win total in the AFC. At +115, the Ravens have a 46.51% implied probability of going 12-5 or better this season. The Ravens reached 12+ wins in both 2023 and 2024.

Whether or not Minter can help the Ravens take the next step is just one of two major questions surrounding this team. The other is Lamar Jackson, who not only battled injuries last year, but didn't look like himself when he did play. He had a 6-7 record in his 13 games, and his numbers across the board fell off significantly compared to seasons past. He threw for only 196.1 passing yards per game and averaged only 26.8 rushing yards per game, about half his 2024 per-game average.

Jackson also ranked just 14th amongst quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and 13th in completion percentage over expected.

The Ravens also have an aging Derrick Henry at running back, who is bound to lose a step at 32 years old.

The good news is the Ravens have one of the easier schedules in the league. Based on the projected win totals of each team's opponents, the Ravens have the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL, behind only the Lions, Bengals, Saints, and Jets.

While I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens back in playoff contention, I don't think they're deserving of having the highest win total in the AFC. I'm not convinced Jackson will have the bounce-back season people are expecting. I'll bet the UNDER on their win total.

Pick: UNDER 11.5 Wins (-140) via DraftKings

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