Bears vs. Falcons Odds Have Massive Shift After Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Injury Updates

Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears received positive injury updates for their starting quarterbacks on Wednesday, which has caused a major shift in the odds for their matchup in Week 6.

Caleb Williams (hamstring) has not played since Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings, but he was estimated as a "full" participant in Wednesday's walk through, putting him in a great spot to return on Sunday.

The Bears had been favored by as many as three points in the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for this game, but that has actually come down after Wednesday's practices.

Caleb Williams will be listed as a full participant on the injury report today. The Bears are conducting a walk thru, so the injury report is an estimation. Their first real practice is tomorrow.
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) October 14, 2026

That's partially due to Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski announcing that starter Michael Penix Jr. is expected to start against Chicago barring a setback from his rib injury. Penix was injured at the end of Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens, causing him to miss the team's overtime drive.

However, it appears he'll be ready to go in Week 6, which has dropped the odds for this game to Bears -1.5.

Falcons HC Kevin Stefanski said he expects QB Michael Penix Jr. to start Sunday against the Bears as long as he has no setbacks to his rib injury. pic.twitter.com/fIfhkHrkFu
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 14, 2026

That new line still deviates from the opening odds, as the Falcons were 1.5-point favorites at home before Penix was banged up on Sunday night. Now that Williams is expected to return, oddsmakers are giving the Bears a slight edge since he's a massive upgrade over Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum.

Both the Bears and Falcons have a case to make the playoffs this season, with Atlanta going 2-1 in Penix's three starts. Meanwhile, Chicago is 3-2 even though Williams has missed 3.5 games with his hamstring injury.

If both players end up practicing through the week, it's possible that this line could shift even more before kickoff.

According to DraftKings, 51 percent of the moneyline bets in this matchup are on the Bears, along with 56 percent of the spread bets. That's a considerable change from earlier in the week when the Falcons were getting most of the spread action. Williams' return seems to bet viewed as the bigger factor in this matchup by the public.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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