Bears vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 6

Chicago is favored to bounce back with Caleb Williams potentially returning.

The Chicago Bears and head coach Ben Johnson are favored on the road in Week 6. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A pair of quarterback injuries have clouded the Week 6 matchup between the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons, but oddsmakers still have Ben Johnson’s Bears as three-point road favorites.

This line has jumped around quite a bit, as Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night before it lost to the Baltimore Ravens. Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) went down in the fourth quarter of that game, putting the Falcons in a tough spot if he can’t go in Week 6.

Atlanta was 0-2 without Penix in the first two weeks of the season, posting one of the worst EPA/Play numbers and success rates in the NFL. If Penix can’t go, Tua Tagovailoa would likely get the start against Chicago. 

Meanwhile, the Bears are coming off a blowout loss on the road against the Green Bay Packers and are hoping that former No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams (hamstring) can return in Week 6. Tyson Bagent (two picks on Sunday) was benched for veteran Case Keenum, and the Bears finished with just seven points in their Week 5 loss.

The latest odds suggest that Williams has a good chance to play in Week 6 after he was questionable for Week 5. 

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this matchup between two potential playoff teams in the NFC. 

Bears vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bears -3 (-118)
• Falcons +3 (-102)

Moneyline

• Bears: -175
• Falcons: +145

Total

• 47.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Bears vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Bears record: 3-2
• Falcons record: 2-3

Bears vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Bears Injury Report

• Caleb Williams – questionable
• Kyle Monangai – questionable
• Anthony Johnson Jr. – questionable
• Dayo Odeyingbo – questionable
• TJ Edwards – questionable
• Tyrique Stevenson Sr. – questionable
• Shemar Turner – questionable
• Kyler Gordon – questionable 

Falcons Injury Report

• CJ Henderson – questionable
• Michael Penix Jr. – questionable
• Za’Darius Smith – questionable
• A.J. Terrell – IR

Bears vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The Bears are 3-2 against the spread in the 2026 season. 
• The Falcons are 2-3 against the spread in the 2026 season.
• Atlanta is 2-1 this season with Michael Penix Jr. starting. 
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Bears’ games this season. 
• Chicago is 2-1 without Caleb Williams in the 2026 campaign. 
• The OVER is 3-2 in the Falcons’ games this season. 

Bears vs. Falcons Key Player to Watch

Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson has been one of the best playmakers in the NFL this season, and he could have an even bigger role in Week 6 if Penix is unable to play.

Through five games, Robinson has 102 carries for 580 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and four rushing touchdowns. He’s been extremely active as a receiver, catching 18 of his 25 targets for 152 yards and an additional touchdown.

The Falcons’ offense runs through the former Texas star, and he could have a big game against a Chicago defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season while ranking 24th in EPA/Rush. 

Robinson has finished with over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in four of his five games this season.  

Bears vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

Chicago’s offense went crazy in Week 1 with Williams under center, scoring 59 points in a victory over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have not gone over the total in a game since, but the star quarterback’s potential return could turn this into a high-scoring game.

The Falcons offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Penix returned, moving up to No. 8 in the NFL in success rate. So, if both of the starters play on Sunday, this could be a bit of a shoutout in a dome in Atlanta. 

Bettors should probably wait to see where these quarterbacks are during the week in practice, but Chicago is still 14th in EPA/Play and 13th in success rate on offense despite some awful play from Bagent and Case Keenum in Week 5. 

Plus, the Bears defense is allowing the fourth-most yards per play in the NFL. 

If Williams plays, I think this will be a high-scoring affair on Sunday. 

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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