Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Quarterfinals

Don’t look now, but Carlos Alcaraz is knocking on the door of yet another U.S. Open title in his return to the national stage.

The 2025 U.S. Open winner is looking to win for the third time at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and he’s heavily favored to advance to the semifinals on Tuesday.

Alcaraz missed a lot of time with a wrist injury in 2026, but he’s looked just as good as always in this tournament, winning three of his four matches in straight sets.

Shelton has impressed as well, dropping just three sets across four matches, but he’s yet to face a single ranked opponent. Does that make this an even tougher battle with one of the best players in the world?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s history and performance at the U.S. Open and my prediction for this match.

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Ben Shelton: +317
Carlos Alcaraz: -421

Total

38.5 (Over -115/Under -125)

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz History and U.S. Open Performance

Shelton and Alcaraz have matched up three times in their respective careers, with the defending U.S. Open champ taking all three of them. Alcaraz last faced Shelton in the 2025 French Open, defeating him in four sets in Round 4.

That’s the only time Shelton has taken a set against the No. 2 seed, dropping both of their matches on hard courts at the Laver Cup (2024) and the ATP Masters 1000 Canada (2023).

Ben Shelton

After dropping at least one set in each of his first three matches in the 2026 U.S. Open, Shelton made quick work of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Round 4, winning 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

Shelton was bounced in the third-round of the U.S. Open last year, but he did make the semifinals back in 2023.

The American won the National Bank Open after his early Wimbledon exit, but he was bounced in his first round match at the Cincinnati Open. This is Shelton’s second quarterfinal appearance in a Grand Slam in 2026.

Carlos Alcaraz

A two-time U.S. Open winner, Alcaraz is the favorite to win once again in 2026, and he’s only dropped one set through four matches. A wrist injury cost Alcaraz a bunch of time in 2026, and he isn’t serving as well as we’re used to, but he still is elite as a returner.

In the fourth round, the No. 2-seed made quick work of Tommy Paul, beating him 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, and he’ll look to keep that rolling against another American in Shelton.

Alcaraz won the U.S. Open back in 2022 before winning again in 2025 and has made at least the quarterfinals in all but one of his showings. That came in 2024 when he was eliminated in the second round.

Prior to the U.S. Open this year, Alcaraz won 22 of his 25 matches. He’s heavily favored to reach the final, and he hasn’t lost a set since Round 2.

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Pick

Shelton’s serving prowess makes him a tough out on hard courts, but he isn’t nearly the same player in return games as Alcaraz.

The No. 2 seed has dominated his opponents in this tournament, ousting Paul in just 29 games in Round 4.

However, I do think that Shelton has a chance to steal a set off of Alcaraz in this match, much like he did in the 2025 French Open.

Shelton has a semifinal appearance in the U.S. Open under his belt, so I expect him to be ready for the moment against this year’s favorite.

Still, I expect Alcaraz to come out on top, as he’s proven to be too much for Shelton to handle – even earlier in their respective careers.

I’m going to take a safer bet in this match and wager on Alcaraz to cover the set spread (-1.5) on Tuesday. This means that Alcaraz needs to win by two sets or more (3-0 or 3-1). Since Shelton is more than capable of winning a set, I think this extends the margin of error for Alcaraz as he seeks another semifinal appearance in a Grand Slam.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz Set Spread -1.5 (-215 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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