Best Bets Today for July 28: Day 205 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year

I put all my chips in the middle of the table yesterday, placing all $100 on the Washington Nationals at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, and it predictably didn't work out. Sometimes, you have to throw up a heat check, and this time it backfired.

We move on to today's MLB slate, and I'm going back to my strategy of spreading the bets around. I have three plays for today's action, so let's dive into them.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 0-1 (-$100)
Year-to-date: 349-369-12 (+$137.65)

July 28 Picks and Best Bets

$30: Anthony Kay OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120) via BetMGM
$35: Twins Team Total OVER 4.5 (-125) vs. Royals via FanDuel
$35: Red Sox -144 vs. Athletics via FanDuel

Yankees vs. White Sox Prop Bet

Pick: $30 on Anthony Kay OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

The Yankees' offense has been horrific lately, specifically when it comes to striking out. Over the past 30 days, they have a strikeout percentage of 28.5% over the past 30 days, which is the worst mark in the Majors by 2.6%. That percentage moves up to 30.3% when facing left-handed pitchers. They're scheduled to face a left-handed starter tonight in Anthony Kay of the White Sox. He's not exactly a strikeout pitcher, but this could be a great spot to bet on him to reach 5+ strikeouts tonight.

Royals vs. Twins Best Bet

Pick: $35 on Twins Team Total OVER 4.5 (-125)

Seth Lugo gets the start for the Kansas City Royals tonight, and I think we're going to see some significant regression from him sooner rather than later. He has a 4.36 ERA but a 5.44 xERA with a .278 xBA. He also ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in almost every pitching metric according to Baseball Savant. To make matters worse for the Royals, they have the second-worst bullpen in the Majors, sporting a bullpen ERA of 5.24.

The Twins should have no issue scoring 5+ runs tonight.

Red Sox vs. Athletics Best Bet

Pick: $35 on Red Sox -144

Hot streak aside, the Red Sox are the team to bet on whenever they face a left-handed start. They rank third in the Majors in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season, while sporting an OPS of .780. They'll now take on the Athletics in a battle of lefties tonight. The Red Sox will start Jake Bennett (2.58 ERA) on the mound, while the Athletics are rolling with Gage Jump (4.42 ERA).

Another significant advantage in the Red Sox's favor is the two bullpens in this game. The Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA in the Majors at 3.02, while the Athletics have the worst at 5.53.

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