Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for UCF-UCLA, Santa Clara-Kentucky, Akron-Texas Tech)

It’s time for some more Madness!

16 more first-round matchups in the NCAA Tournament take place on Friday after a thrilling Thursday slate that saw an early upset win by No. 12 High Point and gutty performance by the No. 16 Siena Saints against No. 1 overall seeded Duke.

Everyone wants to predict the big upset that’ll inevitably happen Friday, but I’m sticking to just three against the spread picks for today’s action. If you want a pick for every game in the first round, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan put that together in his Road to the Final Four – where he’s betting on every game in the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a breakdown of my three favorite picks in today’s Daily Dunk, including the latest odds from the best March Madness betting sites.

Best College Basketball Bets for Friday’s First Round

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Santa Clara +3.5 (-115) vs. Kentucky

This is just the eighth time this season that the Santa Clara Broncos have been set as underdogs, and they are 3-3-1 against the spread in that spot. Can they cover this small spread on Friday afternoon?

Bart Torvik’s matchup predictor actually has the Broncos as favorites in this game, and they’re just seven spots behind the Wildcats in KenPom’s season-long rankings.

Kentucky is 17-17 against the spread this season, but it is an inconsistent offensive team, 98th in effective field goal percentage, outside the top-100 in free throw rate and 38th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Broncos (22nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency) are 52nd in eFG% and 19th in offensive rebounding rate, leading to 56.5 percent shooting from inside the arc.

I think Santa Clara has the firepower to compete with Kentucky, and this line has moved in the Broncos’ favor after sitting at Kentucky -4.5 at one point early in the week. I wouldn't be shocked if there’s an upset in this No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup.

Akron +7.5 (-105) vs. Texas Tech

Could the No. 12 Akron Zips pull off an upset on Friday? I think they have a chance, which is why I’m betting on them to cover in this game.

Texas Tech put together a strong regular season, but it lost leading scorer and 2024-25 Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin for the season to a torn ACL. Then Christian Anderson (who will play in the NCAA Tournament) suffered an injury during the Big 12 Tournament.

Meanwhile, Akron has one of the most potent offenses in the country, ranking seventh in effective field goal percentage, 14th in 3-point percentage and 79th in offensive rebound rate.

While Texas Tech is 20th in KenPom, it has slipped outside the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is 306th in opponent turnover rate. If the Red Raiders can’t turn the Zips over, they’re going to have to win a shootout in the first round. I think that favors the Zips and their elite shooting offense.

UCLA -5.5 (-112) vs. UCF

The Bruins survived some injury scares that happened late in the Big Ten Tournament, as forward Tyler Bilodeau and guard Donovan Dent are both set to play on Friday against the UCF Knights.

That’s a huge boost for a UCLA squad that is No. 27 in KenPom, posting a top-30 offense and a top-55 defense this season.

The Bruins are an elite 3-point shooting team, ranking 16th in the country in 3-point percentage, and they also take care of the ball (12th in turnover rate).

I think they’re one of the better values as a No. 7 seed to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, even with a tough matchup against UConn likely in the Round of 32.

While UCF had a solid season in the Big 12, the Knights rank outside the top-100 in the country in effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage. The Knights also don’t get to the line a lot, ranking 285th in free-throw rate.

Offensively, the Knights are 44th in the country in 3-point percentage, but they’re facing an elite Bruins 3-point defense that is allowing opponents to shoot just 31.8 percent from deep (57th in the country).

As long as UCLA’s stars remain healthy in this game, I think it’s a great bet to cover.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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