Best College Football Picks and Predictions Today for Week 1 (Bet the OVER in Miami vs. Stanford)

We may still have a bit of a wait before the NFL is officially back in action, but to help hold us over until Wednesday's opening kickoff, we're being treated to four straight days of college football action.

We had plenty of games to bet on last night, and we have another handful of games to bet on tonight, leading into the weekend.

Let's dive into my favorite plays for tonight's slate.

College Football Best Bets Today

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Toledo +10 (-110) vs. Michigan State
Fresno State +21.5 (-112) vs. USC
Miami vs. Stanford OVER 47.5 (-112)

Toledo vs. Michigan State Best Bet

You might be surprised to see the spread between these two teams is set at just 10 points, but I have a lot of concerns surrounding Michigan State this season. They were bad last season, ranking 82nd in EPA per play and 115th in opponent EPA per play. Instead of going out and improving in several areas with the transfer portal, they're going to rely on a chunk of players who failed to live up to expectations last season. They are now just 4-15 in their last two seasons, and I don't think one offseason and one new head coach is going to be enough for them to turn things around this year.

Meanwhile, Toledo had some solid results last season, especially defensively, ranking sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. Unlike Michigan State, Toledo used the transfer portal to keep their momentum going this season.

I'll take the points with the Rockets.

Pick: Toledo +10 (-110)

Fresno State vs. USC Best Bet

The USC Trojans put up 42 points in Week 0 against the San Jose Spartans, but their defense also allowed their opponent to score 26 points. Was it a case of them taking their foot off the gas late in the game, or is it a sign of some defensive issues popping up for USC?

Meanwhile, Fresno State is getting plenty of its production from a year ago, back in 2026, and head coach Matt Entz is back for another season. He coached the Bulldogs to a top-20 defense last season based on defensive success rate.

There's enough there for me to trust the Bulldogs to cover this spread.

Pick: Fresno State +21.5 (-112)

Miami vs. Stanford Best Bet

Stanford's offense looked extremely impressive in Week 0 against Hawaii, putting up 483 total yards, including 9.1 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per rush. Andrew Luck and Tavita Pritchard look to be making a significant impact on this program.

With that being said, I'm not yet convinced their defense is ready to take a significant step forward, especially now that they have to take on one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.

Miami will be able to put up points in bunches, and based on last week, I think Stanford can also find the end zone a few times as well. Let's sit back and root for points during this Friday night showdown.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-112)

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