Best College Football Picks and Predictions Today for Week 6 (Bet the OVER in Florida State vs. Louisville)

Week 6 of the College Football season continues on Friday night with a handful of intriguing games for us to watch and bet on, including an ACC showdown between Florida State and Louisville.

I have three bets locked in for tonight's games, so let's dive into them.

Best College Football Bets Today

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Florida State vs. Louisville OVER 59.5 (-109)
Iowa vs. Washington UNDER 41.5 (-108)
Utah State -5.5 (-109) vs. Washington State

Florida State vs. Louisville Best Bet

Both Florida State and Louisville have been far better offensively than defensively to begin the season. The Seminoles come into tonight ranking eighth in adjusted EPA per play and 43rd in success rate, while the Cardinals rank 28th in adjusted EPA per play and 47th in success rate.

Defensively, the two defenses rank 93rd and 46th in adjusted opponent EPA per play, and 86th and 73rd in opponent success rate.

It's also worth noting that the past four games between these two teams have gone OVER the total. I expect another high-scoring game tonight.

Pick: OVER 59.5 (-109)

Iowa vs. Washington Best Bet

The Iowa and Washington game is the complete opposite of Florida State vs. Louisville. The two defenses rank in the top 30 in almost every defensive metric. For example, the Hawkeyes rank seventh in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and the Huskies rank 21st in defensive success rate.

Most importantly, both defenses do a great job of stopping what the other team does. Both offenses are primarily run-first units, and these two defenses rank fourth and sixth in opponent EPA per rush.

Expect another low-scoring Iowa game tonight.

Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-108)

Washington State vs. Utah State Best Bet

I'm going to lay the points with Utah State in this game. The Cougars are one of the worst statistical teams in the country this season, ranking 132nd in adjusted EPA per play. That's well below Utah State, which comes in at 77th in that metric.

Both teams throw the ball more than they run, and it's the Aggies who rank far better in pass defense, including giving up 6.8 yards per pass attempt while the Cougars give up 7.3.

Let's bet the Aggies as home favorites on Friday night.

Pick: Utah State -5.5 (-109)

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