Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Junior Caminero, Yordan Alvarez, Phillies Star)

Looking for a fun way to bet on Wednesday’s MLB action?

Every day, there are a ton of player props to bet on in MLB, but arguably the most exciting ones to bet on are home run props. After all, who doesn’t love the long ball?

The SI Betting team shares our favorite home run props every day throughout the season, and Wednesday’s action is no different. There are a few afternoon matchups that kick off this loaded slate, and several pitchers (Casey Mize, Jameson Taillon, Dean Kremer) are making their first start with their new teams after the deadline.

I’m eyeing a pair of AL MVP candidates in this market, as Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Junior Caminero both are facing pitchers that have struggled with the long ball in 2026.

Let’s dive right into the odds and a breakdown for each of these three picks on Aug. 5.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+286)

Yordan Alvarez has been awesome in the 2026 season, hitting .329 with 35 home runs, putting him in position to win the AL MVP.

The Astros star has an intriguing matchup against Taillon and the Toronto Blue Jays, as the veteran right-hander has really struggled in 2026. Taillon has given up 25 home runs in 15 appearances, including five homers over his last two starts.

Alvarez has some solid numbers against Taillon, hitting .357 (5-for-14) with a .971 OPS and one homer in his career.

The four-time All-Star is hitting over .350 against right-handed pitching this season, homering 26 times in the process. He’s an easy bet just about every night in this market, especially with Taillon’s struggles in 2026.

Brandon Marsh to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has struggled over the last few weeks, homering just one time in his last 22 games (19 starts).

Despite that, I’m buying him against the Washington Nationals and right-hander Jake Irving on Aug. 5.

Irvin led MLB in home runs allowed in the 2026 season, and he’s given up nine long balls in 12 starts in 2026. He returned from a lengthy stint on the injured list on July 30, allowing two home runs and five runs across five innings of work.

Marsh has fared pretty well against Irvin in his career, going 3-for-12 with a double, a homer and a .891 OPS.

Washington also has one of the worst bullpens in MLB, ranking in the bottom five in ERA while allowing 78 homers. This is a perfect spot for Marsh to get back on track in 2026.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+232)

Caminero is hitting .284 with 32 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s been even better as of late.

The two-time All-Star is hitting .381 with six home runs over the last four weeks (24 games), and he’s been on a tear since the All-Star break, pushing his OPS to .926 this season.

Now, Caminero gets to take on the Colorado Rockies and right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 21 home runs in 19 outings this season. Sugano led the American League in homers allowed in 2025 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles.

So far this season, 25 of the 32 home runs that Caminero has hit have come against right-handed pitchers. He’s certainly worth a look in this matchup against a shaky Rockies pitching staff.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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