Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Ketel Marte, Jackson Chourio, Cubs Star)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features nearly every team, as there are 13 games to dive into and plenty of players to consider betting on in the prop market.

Each day throughout the MLB season, the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run player props, as it’s one of the most exciting prop markets in MLB. While predicting a home run isn’t easy, these props usually offer some pretty favorable payouts since they are long shots.

A small wager on one of these plays can make a game a little more exciting, and on Sunday I was able to hit a pick for Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Ironically, a Diamondbacks star is now the headliner on Monday, as second baseman Ketel Marte has a very favorable matchup in a rivalry game with the San Francisco Giants.

He’s one of three players that I’m targeting to leave the yard on June 29.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, June 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+389)

Milwaukee Brewers star Jackson Chourio has 11 home runs in 47 games in the 2026 season, and he’s done a ton of damage over the last four weeks, homering nine times while posting a .324 batting average.

Chourio has an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, as lefty Nick Lodolo (5.59 ERA) is set to make his 10th start of the year. Lodolo has struggled so far in 2026, allowing eight homers in nine outings while the Reds are just 2-7 straight up when he takes the mound.

That’s a good sign for the Brewers offense, and Chourio has crushed left-handed pitching so far in 2026. The star outfielder is hitting .345 with four homers and a .979 OPS against lefties, and he’s had some success against Lodolo as well.

Chourio is 3-for-9 with a double against the Reds southpaw, though he has yet to take him deep. Since Lodolo has struggled a bit with the long ball, I don’t mind taking Chourio to go deep on Monday night.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+344)

Marte is by far my favorite home run target on Monday, and a lot of that has to do with his previous success against Giants right-hander Tyler Mahle.

In his career against Mahle, Marte is hitting .533 (8-for-15) with a 1.696 OPS. He’s picked up five extra-base hits against the Giants right-hander, including a pair of home runs. On top of that, Marte has been red hot as of late, hitting .304 with four home runs over the last two weeks.

Mahle has struggled in the 2026 season, posting a 5.49 ERA across 12 starts. He didn’t allow a run in his first June start last week, but he’s still given up 11 home runs in 2026.

This is a pretty favorable price for Marte, who has homered in three of his last four games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+266)

Chicago Cubs All-Star Pete Crow-Armstrong has 17 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s looking to add to that total against San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning on Monday night.

Canning enters Monday’s start with a 7.38 ERA across 10 appearances, allowing 45 hits and eight home runs in 42.2 innings of work. The Cubs are favored at home in this matchup, and I believe Crow-Armstrong – who already has a homer against Canning in his career – is a great bet to go deep.

PCA is 1-for-3 against the Padres’ starter in his limited at-bats against him, but he’s showcased a ton of power over the last two weeks, homering five times while posting a .340 batting average and a 1.211 OPS.

Crow-Armstrong has 13 home runs against right-handed pitching, and 10 of his homers this season have come this month. Even though this isn’t the best price at +266, it’s hard to pass up this matchup with Canning having a rough 2026 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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