Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Francisco Lindor, Yankees Rookie, Josh Bell)

Every MLB team is in action on Sunday, Aug. 2, and there are a ton of matchups in the afternoon to consider betting on.

Betting on MLB can be overwhelming with all the potential player prop choices, but there are some fun props to consider each day. One of those markets is the home run market, and the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run picks each day throughout the 2026 season.

Home run props are tough to predict, so they’re often set at pretty favorable odds each day. Today, I’m eyeing three players priced at +450 or longer to leave the yard, including New York Mets star Francisco Lindor.

After an injury-plagued first half of the season, Lindor is starting to get hot with the Mets desperate for a late-season playoff push. New York is still well out of a wild card spot, but it is a positive that Lindor is looking like his usual self at the dish since the All-Star break.

He’s one of three players to consider if you’re looking to add a couple home run props to your card on Aug. 2.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Aug. 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Lindor enters Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins with nine home runs in 55 games (54 starts). He’s hitting just .238 this season, but the switch-hitting shortstop has gotten in a groove since the break.

Over his last 13 games, Lindor is hitting .347 with four home runs and a 1.122 OPS. He’s homered three times in the last week of action, slugging .741 with a 1.160 OPS during that stretch.

Now, Lindor takes on Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara (3.82 ERA), who has allowed 17 home runs in 23 outings in 2026. Alcantara gave up five homers in as many starts in July, and he has struggled a bit against Lindor in his career.

The Mets star is 10-for-33 (.303 batting average) with a pair of homers and a .914 OPS against Alcantara in his career. Plus, Lindor has hit six of his nine long balls in 2026 against right-handed pitching.

At +450, I think Lindor is a terrific value as he looks to stay hot after the break.

Spencer Jones to Hit a Home Run (+790)

New York Yankees rookie Spencer Jones is known for his power, and he’s really shown that against the Chicago Cubs, homering in back-to-back games.

Jones has appeared in just 38 games (29 starts) this season, but with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton all on the shelf, he’s been forced into a bigger role. Jones should get another start on Sunday after homering in Saturday’s loss, yet he’s +790 to go deep for the sixth time this season.

Since being called back up to the big leagues, Jones is hitting .300 with a 1.141 OPS and three homers in eight games (six starts). He’s homered in three of his last four appearances and has a favorable matchup against the Cubbies on Sunday.

Colin Rea (4.67 ERA) is on the mound for Chicago, and he’s allowed 17 home runs in 22 appearances this season as both a reliever and a starter.

Jones may not go deep for the fourth time in five games, but this +790 price is way too high for a player with his power.

Josh Bell to Hit a Home Run (+499)

Minnesota Twins slugger Josh Bell has 13 home runs in the 2026 season, and he could add to that total against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday afternoon.

Seattle is turning to right-hander George Kirby in this matchup, and he’s struggled so far in 2026 when it comes to limiting hits. Kirby has allowed 131 hits in 120.0 innings of work, and he’s been taken yard 15 times in his 20 starts.

The righty allowed four homers in his last outing, and he’s been awful against Bell in his career.

Bell is hitting .400 (4-for-10) with two homers, two runs batted in and a 1.400 OPS against Kirby. This season, 10 of Bell’s 13 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. I expect him to have a big game against Kirby, who could end up getting moved by Monday’s trade deadline.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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