Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers)

A ton of MLB series wrap up on Sunday afternoon, but that isn’t going to stop us at SI Betting from placing a few home run props to stay engaged with the action.

There are always a few pitchers to consider fading, and I have a pair of left-handed sluggers – Rafael Devers and Freddie Freeman – that have favorable matchups on April 19.

In addition to that, there’s a rookie that has caught fire in the first month of the season and could be worth a look in an interleague matchup between the Minnesota Twins and the Cincinnati Reds.

Betting on home run props can be tricky since they’re tough to predict, but there are some pretty favorable odds on the board on Sunday, as each of these picks would pay out at +394 or better.

So, here’s the odds and analysis behind each home run prop for Sunday’s MLB slate.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, April 19

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+519)

San Francisco Giants star Rafael Devers is off to a slow start in the 2026 campaign, hitting just .212 with two home runs.

That’s led to his home run prop being set at +519 on Sunday against a pitcher that he has dominated in his career. So, I’m going with the value play and betting on Devers to get back on track.

Devers takes on the Washington Nationals and Miles Mikolas on Sunday afternoon, and the Nats are a great team to fade when it comes to home run props. Not only has Mikolas struggled this season – posting an 11.49 ERA with six home runs allowed – but the Washington bullpen has been awful in 2026.

The Nats have a bullpen ERA of 5.81 (28th in MLB), and they’ve allowed an MLB-high 22 homers. That sets up well for Devers if he’s unable to get to Mikolas in the early innings.

In seven career at-bats against Mikolas, Devers is 5-for-7 with a homer and a walk, good for an OPS of 1.893.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+394)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman hasn’t homered over the last seven days, but he’s hitting the cover off the ball right now (.391 over his last six games) heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies.

This game is at the homer-friendly Coors Field, and Freeman does have three long balls in the 2026 season, hitting two of them off right-handed pitching. On Sunday, he’ll take on Rockies righty Michael Lorenzen, who enters this game with a 8.10 ERA and four homers allowed in five appearances in the 2026 season.

Freeman is 2-for-6 against Lorenzen in his career, and the Rockies have allowed Freeman to hit .333 with 20 hits, three home runs and eight RBIs in his last 15 games against them.

Colorado’s bullpen hasn’t been bad (only 11 homers allowed this season), but Freeman has been too good over the last two weeks (.333 batting average, .928 OPS) for him to only have one homer in that stretch. I think he’s due to get one against a divisional rival on Sunday.

Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+422)

Cincinnati Reds rookie Sal Stewart is off to a fast start in the 2026 season, hitting .297 with seven home runs and a 1.040 OPS. He’s homered three times in the last seven days, and he could be due for another long ball against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.

Minnesota has righty Bailey Ober on the mound, and he’s given up a pair of home runs this season while putting together a 5.49 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in four starts. Last season, Ober gave up 30 homers in 27 starts, and he’s given up 105 home runs in 119 appearances in his career.

That sets up well for Stewart, who has hit five of his seven homers against right-handed pitching this season.

At +422, I think the Reds rookie is a little undervalued on Sunday afternoon.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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