Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Freddie Freeman, Riley Greene, Junior Caminero)

Thursday’s MLB action features a little bit of a shortened slate with several teams traveling ahead of their weekend matchups, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t players to target in the home run prop market.

Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman headlines Thursday’s picks, as he and the Dodgers are looking to put more distance between them and the San Diego Padres in the NL West.

Freeman, Junior Caminero and a few other players come into Thursday’s action with red-hot bats, so why not take a shot on them to leave the yard?

Betting on home run props can be tough – they aren’t easy to predict – but there are often pretty favorable odds associated with them.

Let’s dive right into the odds and analysis behind Thursday’s plays!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, July 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+373)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene is having a strong 2026 season, hitting .285 with 11 home runs. He’s had a power surge as of late, homering three times over the last two weeks, and I think he’s worth a look against Texas Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.

Greene is 3-for-9 with two doubles against Eovaldi in his career, and the veteran right-hander has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing 17 home runs in 16 starts.

There’s no doubt that Greene is more effective against right-handed pitching, as he’s hitting .302 with nine home runs and a .850 OPS against righties in 2026. This is a pretty short price for a player that only has 11 home runs, but I like the matchup a lot for Greene, especially since his slugging is up over the last few weeks.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+303)

Freeman has dominated Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez in his career, and I think now is the perfect time to bet on the veteran to go deep.

Over the last week, Freeman is hitting .455 with one home run, and he’s put together a strong last month, hitting .341 with five home runs and a 1.027 OPS over his last 25 games.

Now, he takes on a starter that has a shaky ERA (4.44) and has given up 13 home runs in 16 outings this season, including two home runs in his last start against the Dodgers.

Freeman is 5-for-9 (.556) with three doubles against Vasquez in his career, and I think now is a perfect time for him to go deep for the 15th time this season.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+239)

Caminero has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since mid-June, so his price to hit a home run is pretty short at +239.

The Tampa Bay Rays star has 24 home runs in the 2026 season, hitting .293. He’s homered eight times in the last week of action, sporting a .458 batting average and an OPS over 1.900.

On top of that, Caminero is hitting .330 with an OPS over 1.100 over the last four weeks (24 games), homering 10 times.

I think he’s a solid bet against Kansas City’s Stephen Kolek, who has given up eight home runs in nine outings so far in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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