Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Juan Soto, Nick Kurtz, Munetaka Murakami)

Looking for a home run prop to kick off this weekend’s MLB action?

All 30 teams will play on Friday night, giving bettors plenty of options to choose from when it comes to the home run market.

On Friday, I’m targeting three left-handed sluggers, including New York Mets star Juan Soto, who has dominated right-handed pitching so far in 2026.

Betting on home run props isn’t easy, but usually bettors can land a pretty favorable payout if they get a pick correct. Just this week, I hit a +610 prop for Ian Happ to leave the yard against the Cincinnati Reds.

So, let’s see if we can stay hot with these three picks on May 8.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Friday, May 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+328)

A’s first baseman Nick Kurtz is off to a bit of a slow start in 2026, hitting just five homers in 36 games, but he’s really crushed right-handed pitching.

Kurtz has all five of his homers and a .932 OPS against righties this season, and I’m buying him in Friday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles.

Orioles righty Kyle Bradish is on the mound, and he’s struggled in 2026, posting a 5.03 ERA in seven starts. Bradish ranks in the 24th percentile in expected ERA and just the ninth percentile in barrel percentage so far this season.

On top of that, he’s allowed five home runs, including at least one homer in three consecutive starts. This is a solid matchup for Kurtz, who did hit 36 home runs (with a .290 average) as a rookie in 2025.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+249)

New York Mets star Juan Soto is hitting .367 with a 1.079 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, making him an intriguing bet against the Arizona Diamondbacks and righty Ryne Nelson.

Soto is 3-for-12 with two homers and seven walks against Nelson in his career, and the D-Backs righty has struggled with the long ball in 2026. Nelson, who has a 6.61 ERA, has given up seven homers in as many starts. On top of that, he ranks in the 13th percentile in expected ERA, the 14th percentile in average exit velocity against, the ninth percentile in barrel percentage and the 10th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Simply put, bettors can’t trust Nelson to keep this New York offense in check.

Since Soto has fared so well against Nelson in his career, I don’t mind targeting him in this series opener on Friday night.

Munetaka Murakami to Hit a Home Run (+302)

Chicago White Sox star Munetaka Murakami is in his first season in MLB, and he’s already showing that he can be an elite power bat.

Murakami has 14 home runs in 37 games, including 10 home runs and a .935 OPS against right-handed pitching. On Friday, he takes on Seattle Mariners righty Emerson Hancock, who has pitched well to open this season despite some home-run issues.

Hancock has a 2.59 ERA, but he has allowed seven home runs in seven starts. That’s a good sign for Murakami, as he’s homered twice in the last week (six games, five starts) and four times over the last two weeks.

I think the White Sox slugger is worth a look to stay hot in this matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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