Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Junior Caminero, Gunnar Henderson, This Long Shot)

Taking a look at the best home run player props for the MLB action on the final day of August, including a pick for Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson.

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is a solid prop target on Monday. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 Major League Baseball season is nearing the home stretch, and August wraps up with a 12-game slate on Monday night, featuring several teams that are battling for a playoff spot. 

The Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners and more are in the mix for a playoff berth in the AL, and they’ll all be in action with a chance to shake up the wild card standings. 

There are a ton of ways to bet on MLB each day, but one of the most exciting is taking a few home run props. Each day here at SI Betting, we aim to give out a winner in the home run market, though these props are tough to hit since they’re usually set at +300 or higher. 

On Monday, I’m eyeing two star players in the AL East to leave the yard, including AL MVP candidate Junior Caminero, who is closing in on 40 long balls in the 2026 season. 

Plus, there is one long shot bet that bettors should consider on Monday since Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has given up a whopping 32 home runs so far this season.

Let’s check out the odds and analysis behind each of these picks on Aug. 31. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 31

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+650)

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lars Nootbaar has only appeared in 68 games this season (58 starts), but he’s left the yard six times, including three times in the last 14 days (10 games, seven starts).

Nootbaar is a strong left-handed bat against right-handed pitching, posting a .251 batting average and .764 OPS against righties this season. He’s also hit five of his six homers against right-handers. 

Nootbaar has been hot as of late, homering twice in his last six games (five starts) and three times in his last 10 (seven starts). Over the last week, he’s hitting .333 with a 1.178 OPS for the D-Backs. 

Now, he takes on Nola, who has given up 32 home runs this season and has a shaky 5.03 ERA. 

Nootbaar actually has been extremely successful against Nola in his career, hitting .500 (3-for-6) with a home run, three walks and an OPS of 1.667. 

At +650, it’s hard to find a better long shot than Nootbaar on Monday. 

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+307)

Caminero has put together a monster 2026 season, hitting .282 with 37 home runs and a .908 OPS to lead the Rays to the best record in the American League. 

The All-Star third baseman has gotten hot at the end of August, hitting .409 with a 1.182 OPS over the last week, and he’s homered seven times in his last 25 games. 

That puts Caminero in a solid spot to go deep against the New York Mets and right-hander Robert Stock (7.40 ERA) on Monday. Stock has allowed two home runs and 17 earned runs in 20.2 innings this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays jumped all over him in this start.

Caminero has hit 29 of his homers against righties, so he’s certainly worth a look with this line north of +300.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+339)

The 2026 season hasn’t been the best one for Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson, but he’s picked things up as of late, and his home run odds have fallen as a result.

Henderson is hitting .300 with a pair of homers over the last week, pushing his season total to 22 long balls. Henderson has displayed power against both righties and lefties, homering eight times against southpaws and 14 against right-handers.

So, I don’t mind him against a tanking Colorado Rockies team and righty Tanner Gordon on Monday night.

Gordon has allowed 17 home runs in 19 appearances this season, posting a 5.38 ERA. The Colorado bullpen (4.77 ERA) has also given up 67 home runs in 2026. 

A one-time All-Star, Henderson has seen his better play coincide with the O’s moving to just one game out of a playoff spot in the AL. There are a bunch of players to consider in this Baltimore offense against the Rockies, but I like the price for Henderson at the homer-friendly Coors Field.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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