Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Junior Caminero, Michael Harris II, Mariners Slugger)

Looking to bet on a few home run props for the MLB action on Thursday?

There are a few teams that are off due on Thursday, but there are still 11 games to dive into, including four with a first pitch before 3 p.m. EST.

I’m eyeing one of those games – the Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers matchup – and a 2026 Home Run Derby participant in Junior Caminero to leave the yard on Thursday.

Home run props can be tough to predict, but they also usually offer a pretty solid payout if you’re able to predict them correctly. Here at SI Betting, we share a few home run props that we like each day as a fun way to stay engaged in the long 162-game regular season.

In addition to Caminero, there are a couple of left-handed hitters that I’m eyeing on Thursday against some home-run prone starting pitchers.

Here’s a breakdown of each of these props – and their latest odds – for July 30.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, July 30

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+313)

I’m going to target a 2026 Home Run Derby participant for my first pick on Thursday.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is a candidate to win the AL MVP this season, and he’s already hit 29 home runs for the top team in the American League.

Caminero has cooled off over the last week, hitting .167, which has pushed his odds to hit a home run back over +300. I think that’s a pretty solid value for one of the best hitters in MLB, especially since he’s put together some solid numbers since the All-Star break.

In 13 games, Caminero is hitting .308 with one homer and an .838 OPS. He’s homered 22 times against right-handed pitching this season, and it’s worth noting that Texas Rangers opener Cole Winn (6.11 ERA) allowed two homers in his last appearance.

Caminero could also make some noise against the rest of this Texas bullpen, which has a 4.23 ERA in 2026 while allowing 46 homers. It’s rare that the Rays star is priced at +300 or higher given his impressive power this season, so I don’t mind taking a shot on him in this series finale.

Dominic Canzone to Hit a Home Run (+384)

Seattle Mariners outfielder Dominica Canzone has been red hot since the All-Star break, hitting .333 with three homers and a 1.193 OPS over the last week (six games), heading into Thursday’s series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Canzone has done a lot of his damage against right-handed pitching, posting a .263 batting average this season while also recording 14 of his 18 homers against righties. Now, he gets to take on Dodgers youngster Roki Sasaki, who has allowed 20 home runs in 18 appearances this season.

Sasaki enters this start with a 4.71 ERA, and he’s allowed six home runs in just four starts in July.

That’s great news for Canzone, who has an OPS over .800 against right-handed pitching this season. I think he’s a great bet to stay hot on Thursday night.

Michael Harris II to Hit a Home Run (+279)

Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II is having a strong 2026, hitting .293 with 19 home runs, including three home runs in his 13 games since the All-Star break.

Harris has dominated right-handed pitching this season with 13 home runs,a .300 batting average and an OPS of .835. On Thursday, he and the Braves take on the Washington Nationals and right-hander Jake Irvin, who is making his return to the rotation after missing time with a shoulder strain.

Irvin has allowed seven home runs in 12 appearances in 2026, and he’s coming off a 2025 season where he led MLB with 38 home runs allowed.

Plus, the Washington bullpen (5.03 ERA this season) has allowed a whopping 76 home runs in 2026.

Harris has some solid numbers against Irvin in his career, even though he’s never taken him deep. The Braves star is hitting .318 (7-for-22) with a pair of doubles and a .784 OPS against Irvin. He’s worth a look to hit his 20th homer in the 2026 season tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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