Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Ketel Marte, Jackson Chourio, Yankees Slugger)

The NFL may be back after the Hall of Fame Game kicked off the preseason on Thursday, but Major League Baseball still owns the sports calendar right now, as the playoff push is on with less than two months left in the regular season.

On Friday night, bettors have a full 15-game slate in MLB to dive into, including some matchups between teams vying for a wild card spot, or a division crown, down the stretch of the season:

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I’ve targeted a few of these games for today’s best home run bets, including a pick for D-Backs star Ketel Marte.

Betting on home run props can be tough since many players may not even hit 20 long balls in a season, but the SI Betting team shares our favorite picks every day using the latest odds, matchup data and recent trends to help predict who will go deep that night.

Friday is no different, and I have multiple players with +445 odds or longer to consider for this 15-game slate.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Friday, Aug. 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+478)

Marte has been slumping as of late for the Diamondbacks, hitting just .163 with a .520 OPS over the last two weeks, homering only one time during that stretch.

As a result, the betting market has cooled on him, and his home run prop has inched closer to the +500 territory. This number is pretty favorable even though Marte is in a slump, as he’s gone deep 19 times already in 2026.

The switch-hitting second baseman has done a lot of his damage against right-handed pitching, homering 11 times in 106 games. He’s also fared pretty well against tonight’s starter for Los Angeles – Roki Sasaki – in limited at-bats.

Marte is 1-for-2 with a homer against the young right-hander, and Sasaki (4.64 ERA) has given up 20 home runs in 19 appearances this season.

I’d understand bettors avoiding this prop because of Marte’s recent form, but I think the odds have moved back to a place where he’s at least worth considering on Friday night.

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+445)

Milwaukee Brewers star outfielder Jackson Chourio missed the start of the 2026 season with an injury, but he’s been great since returning, hitting .277 with 15 home runs in 81 games (77 starts).

Chourio has hit 11 of his 15 home runs against right-handed pitching, but he’s been great against lefties as well, posting a .306 batting average and an OPS just short of .900.

On Friday, Chourio will take on Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has a 5.22 ERA this season. Matthews ranks in just the fourth percentile amongst MLB pitchers in barrel percentage this season, and he’s allowed 16 home runs in 81.0 innings of work (14 appearances).

I think he’s an ideal candidate to fade, and Minnesota’s bullpen has struggled in 2026, posting a 4.90 ERA (the fifth-worst in MLB).

Over the last week (seven games), Chourio is hitting .308 with a .977 OPS and a pair of home runs. I love this price (+445) for him on Friday against Matthews.

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+351)

The New York Yankees added Luis Garcia Jr. to their roster at the trade deadline, and the former Washington Nationals first baseman led the National League in slugging percentage before he was dealt.

Garcia has already homered in a Yankee uniform, and he has an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves – a team he faced a lot in Washington – on Friday night.

The Braves are starting right-hander Tyler Mahle, who posted a 5.13 ERA and allowed 14 home runs in 18 appearances with the San Francisco Giants before he was dealt to Atlanta at the deadline.

Mahle was tagged for five runs and a homer in his first start this month.

Garcia is just 1-for-6 against Mahle in his career, but the Yankees slugger is hitting .297 with 21 home runs and a .925 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Plus, he has a .964 OPS, a .304 batting average and three homers over the last two weeks (12 games).

With the short porch at Yankee Stadium, Garcia could see his home run numbers skyrocket over the final two months of the regular season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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