Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Ketel Marte, Riley Greene, Nationals Star)

A ton of new series get underway in Major League Baseball on Monday, giving bettors plenty of matchups to dive into in the prop market.

The SI Betting team shares all kinds of player props each day, but we specifically devote our Daily Dinger column to home run props, which may be the most exciting prop to bet and root for in all of sports.

While predicting a home run is tough, there are pitching matchups to exploit on a nightly basis with starting pitchers that have struggled during the season. On Monday, I’m fading three pitchers that have allowed a ton of home runs, including Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon, who has given up 20 home runs in just 13 starts.

Let’s dive right into the players to bet on to leave the yard on Monday, July 20.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, July 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+226)

Detroit Tigers star Riley Greene is hitting .286 with 14 home runs in the 2026 season, and while his power hasn’t been elite, he still has a .846 OPS, including a 1.000 OPS since the All-Star break.

He’s taking on Taillon on Monday, who hasn’t made a start since early June and has allowed 20 home runs in his 13 appearances this season.

Greene is 1-for-8 against Taillon in his career, but that lone hit was a home run.

The Tigers outfielder has dominated right-handed pitching this season, hitting .304 with a .886 OPS and 12 of his 14 home runs. He’s worth a look on Monday, especially since Taillon has allowed at least one homer in 10 of his outings in 2026.

Dylan Crews to Hit a Home Run (+364)

Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews hasn’t had the smoothest MLB journey for a top prospect, but he does have a favorable matchup on Monday against the Colorado Rockies and left-hander Kyle Freeland.

This season, Freeland has a 7.36 ERA, allowing 18 home runs in 18 appearances. The Rockies are just 6-12 with him on the mound, and the veteran lefty has an 8.46 ERA and 17 home runs allowed since he came off the injured list in late April.

Crews is 1-for-1 against Freeland in his career, and the Nationals youngster has dominated lefties in 2026. Crews is hitting .328 with a .934 OPS against left-handed pitching, homering three times in less than 60 at-bats.

The Nationals have more well-known power hitters in James Wood and CJ Abrams, but I think Crews is a solid value bet in this matchup.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+279)

Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte has 17 home runs in the 2026 season, and seven of them have come against left-handed pitching.

In fact, the D-Backs second baseman is hitting lefties much better this season, posting a .299 batting average, .933 OPS and a .588 slugging percentage in just 97 at-bats. Marte has seven homers against lefties in 2026.

Now, he faces one of the most home-run prone left-handers in the league in the Athletics’ Jeffrey Springs. Through 19 outings, Springs has allowed 26 home runs, and he’s gone 10 consecutive starts with at least one homer allowed.

The Athletics’ left-hander ranks in just the 12th percentile in ground-ball percentage in 2026, so Marte and the D-Backs should be able to lift the ball against him tonight.

Marte is hitting .308 since the break, and I expect him to stay hot on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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