Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Max Muncy, Nick Kurtz, Marlins Infielder)

Wednesday’s Major League Baseball action begins with a bunch of afternoon games, including a battle between the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants that could produce a few long balls.

That’s right, we’re targeting some home run props for June 10, as there are four players that I like to leave the yard, including a Miami Marlins star that is set at +1020 to hit his seventh homer of the season.

Betting on home run props isn’t easy – I didn’t hit any of my three picks on – Tuesday, but we’re transparent about that here at SI Betting. Home run props are a fun way to stay engaged during a long 162-game regular season, even though they’re extremely tough to predict.

For these plays, I focus on the pitching matchups, hitter history against the starter and how these hitters have fared in recent games. There are a few guys that have been red hot – including Los Angeles Dodgers star Max Muncy – that are worth a look on Wednesday.

So, without further ado, here’s a breakdown of the four home run props to consider on June 10.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, June 10

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Casey Schmitt to Hit a Home Run (+375)

San Francisco Giants slugger Casey Schmitt has a favorable matchup on Wednesday afternoon, as he’ll take on Washington Nationals lefty Foster Griffin, who has given up 14 home runs in 13 appearances in 2026.

Griffin has a 3.63 ERA, but his expected ERA (4.35) is a little higher and he ranks in just the sixth percentile amongst MLB pitchers in barrel percentage.

That’s a good sign for Schmitt, who has a .375 batting average and a .956 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, homering three times. The 27-year-old has also homered three times in the last week, pushing him to 15 long balls in 2026.

Even once Griffin exits, I like this matchup for Schmitt since the Washington bullpen has a 4.58 ERA and has allowed 45 home runs this season.

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+235)

A’s star first baseman Nick Kurtz has shaken off a slow start – in the power department – to the 2026 season, and he’s now on fire heading into Wednesday’s clash with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kurtz has four home runs over the last week and he’s hitting .295 with seven home runs in the last two weeks. He’s up to 15 homers in the 2026 season while hitting .283 (.292 against right-handed pitching) with a .969 OPS.

The 23-year-old has a solid matchup against Milwaukee righty Brandon Sproat, who has given up 11 home runs in 12 appearances this season, posting a 6.17 ERA. Sproat ranks in the 10th percentile in expected ERA, the 22nd percentile in barrel percentage and the 20th percentile in hard-hit percentage in 2026.

Kurtz has crushed right-handed pitching all season, and he’s worth a look – even at this price – to continue his power surge on Wednesday.

Xavier Edwards to Hit a Home Run (+1020)

If you’re looking for a long shot bet, Miami Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards fits the bill on Wednesday night.

Edwards is taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks and righty Ryne Nelson, who has allowed 15 home runs and ranks in the seventh percentile in ground-ball percentage in 2026. Nelson has a 4.60 ERA, and he’s given up nine homers over his last seven starts.

While Edwards isn’t a power hitter, the Marlins star does hit for average. He’s posted a .306 batting average, .846 OPS and is hitting .308 over the last two weeks. The power (six home runs) hasn’t been a strong suit for Edwards, but at +1020, he’s at least worth a shot against a home-run prone pitcher.

Still, since this is such a long shot I’d only recommended a very small wager on this play.

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+405)

Dodgers star Max Muncy has been on fire over the last week, hitting .474 with a 1.079 OPS. While he hasn’t homered during that stretch, Muncy has two home runs and a batting average well over .300 over the last 14 days.

He’s fallen to +405 to hit a home run on Wednesday against Pittsburgh Pirates righty Jared Jones, who has given up two homers in two appearances in 2026.

Muncy has been much better against right-handed pitching this season, hitting 11 of his 14 home runs while posting a .276/.372/.532 slash line.

Since Muncy’s been so hot at the plate, it’s only a matter of time before he runs into one for his 15th homer of the season. With Jones coming back from an injury and the Pirates bullpen posting a pedestrian 4.33 ERA, Muncy is a solid bet on June 10.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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