Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Pete Alonso, Corey Seager, Red Sox Slugger)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features 10 games, as several teams open up new series with the playoffs less than two months away.

The MLB playoff picture saw some major changes over the last week, and there are several teams in the wild card hunt that are in action on Monday.

While bettors could look to target a side, total and more in these games, the SI Betting team breaks down our favorite home run player props every day during the 2026 season in our Daily Dinger column.

I’m actually eyeing three teams in the wild card race in the American League – Boston, Baltimore and Texas – when it comes to today’s picks.

Betting on home runs isn’t easy since players aren’t going deep all that often when looking at a 162-game season. But, using matchup data, recent trends and more can help us narrow down some of the players in the best situation to leave the yard on a given night.

So, here’s a breakdown – and the latest odds – of each of the three players I’m buying to hit a homer on Aug. 10.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 10

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+307)

Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s been red hot over the last week, homering three times in his last five games while posting a .438 batting average and a 1.584 OPS.

I’m going to bet on Abreu staying hot, as he’s taking on the Toronto Blue Jays and right-hander Jameson Taillon on Monday. Taillon has really struggled with the long ball in 2026, allowing 26 home runs in 16 appearances. He gave up one homer in four innings in his debut with the Jays earlier this month and his ERA has jumped all the way to 5.96 for the entire season.

Abreu has never faced Taillon in his career, but the Sox outfielder has 15 homers against right-handed pitching in 2026. He has hit left-handed pitching better (.326 batting average), but I’m willing to ride Abreu’s hot bat in a favorable matchup.

Taillon has just three appearances this season where he did not give up a home run.

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+329)

The Baltimore Orioles are taking on one of their former teammates, as Dean Kremer was dealt to the Minnesota Twins at the deadline and will make his second start with the franchise on Monday night.

Kremer has appeared in eight games this season, posting a 5.93 ERA and allowing a whopping 12 home runs. The former Oriole only allowed one run in his debut with the Twins, but I still think he’s a fade candidate on Monday night.

Enter Pete Alonso.

The O’s haven’t gotten a ton of great seasons out of offensive players in 2026, but Alonso has lived up to the deal he signed in the offseason, homering 25 times while posting a .818 OPS.

The star first baseman has three home runs over his last 12 games, and he ended up with a .951 OPS last week (six games) while homering twice.

Alonso has fared well against right-handed pitching in 2026, posting a .260 batting average with 19 of his 25 home runs. He’s a pretty solid value at +329 against the home-run prone Kremer, especially since the Twins are in the bottom five in MLB in bullpen ERA this season.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+325)

The 2026 season has not gone to plan for Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager. He’s hitting under .200 and has only played in 59 games due to various injuries.

Still, Seager has homered 11 times, meaning he’s gone deep in just about one of every five games. So, why not take a shot on him on Monday?

Since returning from the injured list (eight games), Seager is hitting .286 with a home run and a .783 OPS. The five-time All-Star has a pretty interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Angels and lefty Reid Detmers, who Seager has faced a bunch in his career.

The Rangers star is 5-for-20 with a home run against Detmers, posting a .823 OPS. This season, Detmers has struggled a bit with the long ball, allowing 17 homers in 23 appearances. He’s also given up nine home runs in six starts since July 1.

The Angels also have a shaky bullpen (4.40 ERA) that has given up 58 homers in the 2026 season. Seager is a hit-or-miss player given his batting average this season, but I believe this is one of the better matchups he’s had since coming off the IL.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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