Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Pete Crow-Armstrong, Fernando Tatis Jr., More)

Monday’s MLB action features a 10-game slate with several teams vying for playoff positioning down the home stretch of the regular season.

Two of those teams are the Chicago Cubs (first in the NL wild card race) and San Diego Padres (third in the NL wild card race), who have both played well since the trade deadline. Part of that has been due to the play of their superstar outfielders, as MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstron (33 home runs) and All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. (17 home runs) have both found a major power surge in recent weeks.

So, I’m targeting both of them to go deep in Monday’s lighter slate, an exciting way to bet on all of this MLB action.

Home run props can be tough to predict, but I’ve decided to fade three pitchers that have given up at least 20 long balls this season entering Monday’s action.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props, including one play that is pushing 5/1 odds.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 24

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP this season, and for good reason. He has the best WAR in MLB (8.1) and has been on a crazy power surge as of late.

PCA has five home runs over the last week (six games) and 10 over the last 28 days (26 games) to lead the Cubs. He has an OPS north of 1.500 in the last week and has pushed his season-long OPS to .938.

Now, Crow-Armstrong takes on veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has given up 26 home runs in 23 appearances this season while posting a 5.37 ERA. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has struggled against PCA in his career, allowing the Cubs star to go 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles.

So, is this the perfect spot for the NL MVP favorite to finally take Kelly deep?

I love the matchup for PCA, as he’s hitting .375 over the last week and has launched 24 of his 33 homers this season against right-handed pitching. At +340, he’s a pretty solid value for a Cubs team that is looking to lock up the top wild card spot in the NL.

Ryan Jeffers to Hit a Home Run (+382)

Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers has been limited to just 67 games (60 starts) in the 2026 season due to injuries, but he’s been one of the best offensive catchers in the league when he’s been in the lineup.

Jeffers is hitting .282 with 10 home runs and a .875 OPS. He hasn’t homered in his last 10 games (eight starts), but I’m betting on that changing on Monday night.

The Twins are taking on the Athletics and lefty Jeffrey Springs, who has given up 29 home runs in 23 appearances this season while posting a 6.02 ERA. Springs has just one outing since June 1 where he didn’t allow a homer.

Jeffers is just 2-for-8 against Springs in his career, but the Twins slugger has crushed left-handed pitching in the 2026 season. Jeffers is hitting .308 with two homers and a .923 OPS against southpaws, and he’s hitting over .300 overall in his last 10 games.

He’s worth a shot against an Athletics pitching staff that is one of the worst in baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+468)

A two-homer game on Sunday continued a red-hot stretch for Fernando Tatis Jr., yet he’s nearly 5/1 to leave the yard on Monday night.

Tatis is hitting .352 with nine homers over his last 24 games (23 starts), and he’s batting an insane .480 with four home runs over the last week.

After a slow start when it came to his power this season, Tatis is up to 17 homers and has an OPS over .800 for a Padres team that is in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs in the National League.

I’m buying the star outfielder against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sending Braxton Ashcraft (21 homers allowed this season) to the mound on Monday. Ashcraft has a 3.68 ERA this season, but he’s allowed at least one homer in all but one of his starts since July 1.

I think Tatis is mispriced after a major game on Sunday, and he should continue his late-season surge in this series opener.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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