Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Olson, Yankees Slugger)

The MLB Playoffs continue on Wednesday, and there were a ton of big home runs in the Game 1 action on Tuesday.

Austin Riley had the biggest homer of the day, putting the Atlanta Braves ahead in the bottom of the eighth inning with a three-run blast.

AUSTIN RILEY
GO-AHEAD THREE-RUN HOMER
ATLANTA IS GOING WILD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XrPQnazvVO
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026

He wasn’t the only player to go deep, as New York Yankees star Ben Rice homered twice, Colson Montgomery and Nelson Velasquez went deep in the Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros matchup and three San Diego Padres left the yard in the final game of the night, including two in the first inning (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado).

So, why not bet on a few players going deep with four different teams facing elimination on Wednesday?

I’m targeting multiple players that are hovering around 5/1 to go deep, as well as NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong in today’s playoff action.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+534)

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson did not have a strong Game 1, going 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts, but he did close the regular season strong, hitting .306 with three home runs and an .831 OPS over the final two weeks (13 games).

Olson homered 41 times during the regular season, and I don’t mind him at this price (+534) to have a big postseason moment on Wednesday.

In his career against Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez, Olson is 6-for-23 with two doubles, two homers and a .900 OPS. Those are pretty good numbers when facing an elite left-handed starter, and Sanchez hasn’t exactly been immune to the long ball in 2026.

The two-time All-Star allowed 19 home runs in 33 starts, including five long balls over his final four starts of the regular season. Sanchez had a 5.12 ERA in September, so I don’t hate the idea of fading him in Game 2.

As for Olson, he actually posted a better batting average and OPS against lefties in the regular season, hitting 16 of his 41 home runs against them. I think he’s undervalued at this price with the Braves looking to end this series.

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+493)

Yankees slugger Luis Garcia Jr. did not start against lefty Payton Tolle in Game 1, but he did get a pinch hit appearance on Tuesday.

Garcia scorched a ball up the middle that ended up being a great double-play for Boston, even though the Yankees scored a run on the play. Now, I expect him to start and play a prominent role against righty Sonny Gray in Game 2.

During the regular season, Garcia homered 30 times with 27 of those coming against right-handed pitching. He hit .283 with a .864 OPS against righties, and he’s fared pretty well against Gray in his career.

The Red Sox right has allowed just 16 home runs in 2026, but Garcia is 4-for-10 with a double, a home run and a 1.200 OPS against him. With the short porch waiting at Yankee Stadium, I think bettors could do a lot worse than taking Garcia at +493 on Wednesday.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+319)

Pete Crow-Armstrong had a rough Game 1 against the San Diego Padres, and he’s looking to right the ship against Nick Pivetta, who has given up just two home runs in eight outings this season.

PCA is actually 1-for-3 against Pivetta in his career, and the NL MVP frontrunner hit 45 home runs in the regular season, including 34 against right-handed pitching. The Cubs star had a .973 OPS against righties, and I’m betting on a bounce-back showing in this Game 3 matchup.

After all, PCA closed the regular season on a high note, hitting .288 with four home runs and a .977 OPS over the final two weeks. He’s worth a look with Chicago’s season on the line.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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