Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Riley Greene, Alec Burleson, Yankees Slugger)

Looking for a home run prop to kick off Sunday’s MLB action?

Just over a week remains in the 2026 regular season, leaving very few days with a full slate of games to choose from when it comes to the home run market.

While betting on home run props can be tricky – the best players are only going deep about 30 to 40 times per season – it is a fun way to get involved in the MLB action while potentially securing a favorable pay out.

Still, when it comes to these picks, we preach responsible betting because any bet set at these prices (+300 or higher) is much harder to hit.

On Sunday, I’m targeting three left-handed hitters in Daily Dinger, including Detroit Tigers All-Star Riley Greene, who has been red hot at the dish, hitting .368 over his last 17 games.

Let’s dive into my pick for Greene and two more home-run threats on Sunday, Sept. 20.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Sept. 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+374)

Greene has homered five times in his 17 games since coming off the injured list, and he’s hitting .400 with three homers and an OPS of 1.135 over the last two weeks.

I like this price for Greene against the Chicago White Sox and right-hander Davis Martin, who has given up 14 home runs this season and seven homers in six outings since Aug. 1.

Greene has dominated Martin in his career, going 5-for-12 (.417) with a .950 OPS. The Tigers outfielder is also a better hitter against right-handed pitching, homering 15 times against them this season while posting a .295 batting average.

Since he’s been so hot since returning to the lineup, Greene is a solid bet at this price, especially against a Chicago team that is in danger of missing the playoffs.

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+516)

New York Yankees first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. has been slumping this week, but he’s still hitting .293 with four homers over the last four weeks.

Garcia has 27 home runs and a .290 batting average against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s fared pretty well against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Corbin Burnes in his career. Garcia is 2-for-10 with a home run against Burnes, and the D-Backs righty has allowed two long balls in two appearances this season in his return from Tommy John.

Even though he’s been slumping this week, Garcia is simply mispriced at this number (+516). It’s very rare to get a player with 30 home runs in a season at north of 5/1, and Garcia has shown with the Yankees and Washington Nationals that he’s a slugging percentage machine, posting a .534 mark in 2026.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+374)

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a .316 batting average, 20 home runs and a .938 OPS. He’s also been red hot over the last two weeks, hitting 325 with a 1.001 OPS overall.

On Sunday, Burleson takes on the Washington Nationals and right-hander Jake Irvin, who has given up 17 home runs in his 20 appearances in 2026. Irvin led the NL in homers allowed in 2025, and the Washington bullpen (105 homers allowed) has the third-worst ERA in MLB.

Burleson is 3-for-7 (.429) with a homer, a double and an OPS of 1.500 against Irvin. He’s a solid bet at nearly 4/1 odds against this awful Washington pitching staff.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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