Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker)

Nearly every team in Major League Baseball (28 of 30) is in action on Friday, including several games that have afternoon starts.

That gives MLB bettors plenty of chances to bet on some players to hit home runs, and there was a prop bet from Thursday that I cashed for Boston Red Sox rookie Kristian Campbell for plus money.

Predicting home run props is a lot harder than total bases props, but the thinking is similar. Usually the goal is to target hot hitters in favorable matchups. Sometimes finding the right pick can be done by looking at a pitcher that’s struggling or that the batter has a good history against.

Other times, simply looking at hitters’ splits against lefties and righties can help alert bettors to an intriguing pick. On Friday, there are a couple of players that I’m betting on to leave the yard.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Friday, April 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+365)
Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+425)
The Aaron Judge Bet? (+205)

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+365)

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has a pair of home runs in the 2025 season, and he is taking on a lefty – Jesus Luzardo – and the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Luzardo allowed a homer in his season debut, and he’s been prone to the long ball in his career, giving up nine in 12 starts last season and 22 in 32 starts in 2023.

Hernandez only has two at bats against Luzardo in his career, but he did tag him for a double in one of those appearances. Overall, Hernandez mashes left-handed pitching, which is why I’m targeting him tonight.

For his career, Hernandez hits .278 against lefties (21 points higher than his batting average against righties) while slugging .561 (99 points higher than his slugging percentage against righties). He’s a solid bet to go deep on Friday.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column – Painting Corners – why Kyle Tucker is a great bet against the San Diego Padres:

The Chicago Cubs traded with the Houston Astros for outfielder Kyle Tucker this past offseason, and the early returns have been fantastic.

Tucker has already smacked four home runs for the Cubbies, and he’s posted an impressive slash line of .324/.444/.784. Not only does Tucker have four homers, but he’s also hit five doubles, meaning nine of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases.

He’s got a solid matchup on Friday against the San Diego Padres and right Randy Vasquez. The Padres starter has not allowed a homer this season, but he did give up 13 in just 20 appearances in the 2024 campaign.

With Tucker red hot at the dish, this is a pretty solid price to get him at on Friday.

The Aaron Judge Bet? (+205)

Aaron Judge leads Major League Baseball with five homers and 15 runs batted in this season, so I ask: Do we bet on him to go yard again?

There is an argument to make for betting this prop nearly every night, even though Judge is all the way down to +205 to go deep on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is a pretty good matchup for the New York Yankees slugger, as Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh’s starter) has allowed 23 and 25 homers in his last two seasons.

I won’t formally say that Judge is the bet to make at this price, but I wouldn’t fault any bettor for trusting the American League’s best home-run hitter tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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