Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager)

Looking to close out the MLB season with a bang?

A home run prop is a great way to start, as there are still multiple playoff spots up for grabs on Sunday afternoon.

The AL West remains undecided with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros both sitting at 80-81, and a four-game losing streak by the Philadelphia Phillies has opened the door for the Arizona Diamondbacks to overtake them for the final wild card spot in the National League.

So, there is a ton of potential drama on Sunday, and some players that’ll be looking to power their respective teams into the playoffs.

I’m targeting a few home run props for this loaded MLB slate, including a pick for the presumptive AL MVP.

Let’s dive right into the odds and analysis behind these home run bets, as this is the final time in the 2026 season that we’ll be able to choose from a full slate of games in the home run market.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Sept. 27

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+447)

The Phillies can get into the playoffs with a win on Sunday – or an Arizona loss – and star Bryce Harper may be the perfect man to rely on in this matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Harper has a flair for the dramatic from his time in Philly, hitting some clutch playoff home runs, even though the team has been unable to win a World Series in his tenure. He’s been slumping a bit to end the regular season, hitting .250 without a home run in his last 12 games.

Still, I don’t mind Harper at this price against Rays righty Nick Martinez, who has allowed 22 home runs in 30 outings in 2026. Harper has crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting .300 with 24 home runs and a .996 OPS.

He’s also 2-for-5 with a home run and a 1.400 OPS against Martinez in his career. With so much at stake for the Phillies, I don’t mind the former MVP at this price on Sunday.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+227)

The AL MVP favorite, Yordan Alvarez went deep on Saturday against the Athletics to help keep the Houston Astros in the top spot in the AL West standings.

This season, Alvarez is hitting .316 with 42 home runs, and he’s been on fire over the last two weeks (12 games), hitting .390 with four long balls. The Astros slugger has upped that average to .417 over the last week of action.

The Athletics are going with a bullpen game, led by Seth Johnson, which is a great sign for the Houston offense. The Athletics’ bullpen has a league-worst 5.36 ERA and has given up 96 home runs in 2026.

I expect Alvarez to stay hot with Houston’s season on the line.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+352)

Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager missed a lot of time in the 2026 season with injuries, but he’s still homered 19 times in 101 games for Texas.

With the team needing a win – and a Houston loss – to make the playoffs, I expect the Rangers’ bats to come alive on Sunday against the already-eliminated Minnesota Twins.

Right-hander Dean Kremer is on the bump for the Twins, and he has a 4.97 ERA this season, allowing 17 home runs in 16 appearances. That’s great news for Seager, who has six home runs over his last 25 games, though he’s hitting just .238 during that stretch.

Still, the veteran shortstop has thrived against Kremer in his career, going 4-for-8 with a walk. He’s worth a look with Texas looking to leapfrog Houston and make the playoffs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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