Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Yordan Alvarez, Rafael Devers, Nationals Star)

What better way to kick off the week than a few home run props for tonight’s MLB action?

Not only is today the MLB trade deadline (at 6 p.m. EST), but there are several important games on the docket with the playoff race in both the American League and National League heating up.

Each day, the SI Betting team previews the action in MLB, including some of our favorite player props for the slate. Today’s action is no different, especially when it comes to the home run props available. There are a bunch of sluggers that have favorable matchups, but I’ve narrowed things down to my three favorite plays.

Monday’s edition of Daily Dinger features several stars, including AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, who takes on the Toronto Blue Jays and right-hander Shane Bieber.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and my analysis behind each of these home run props on Aug. 3.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+293)

Alvarez has put together a massive 2026 season, hitting .330 with 35 home runs and a 1.092 OPS. Houston is finally starting to capitalize on his impressive play, winning six games in a row to take control of the top spot in the AL West entering Monday’s matchup with Toronto.

The Jays are well out of the playoff race, and their attempt to rehab Shane Bieber’s career has produced mixed results so far in 2026. Bieber has a 5.74 ERA in seven appearances, and he struggled mightily in his last start, allowing four runs and six walks while recording just two outs.

It was a disappointing setback for Bieber, who had allowed just one run across 13.0 innings in his previous two outings.

Still, the right-hander has given up seven home runs in 2026, and he’s struggled against Alvarez in his career. The Astros star is hitting .571 (4-for-7) with a pair of doubles against Bieber. He has yet to take the veteran yard, but Alvarez has crushed righties in 2026, hitting .350 with a 1.163 OPS and 26 home runs.

He’s also hitting an absurd .419 with four homers and a 1.336 OPS over the last two weeks (12 games). Alvarez is a great bet, especially at this price, on Monday night.

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+308)

The San Francisco Giants are well out of the playoff race in the National League, but they are getting some positive play from star Rafael Devers since the All-Star break.

Over the last two weeks, Devers is hitting .311 with three home runs and a .974 OPS, pushing him to 23 home runs in the 2026 season. The three-time All-Star has an intriguing matchup against the Texas Rangers and Cal Quantrill on Monday, even though the Rangers right-hander has pitched well in 2026.

Quantrill has worked as a starter and a reliever for the Rangers, posting a 3.84 ERA across 22 appearances. He’s allowed just eight home runs, but four of those came in July when he made four starts and just one relief appearance. So, he could be more vulnerable to the long ball if he has a longer leash on Monday.

Devers has crushed Quantrill in his career, hitting .500 (7-for-14) with three doubles, a homer and a 1.462 OPS. This is a great spot for the Giants slugger to stay hot, especially since the Texas bullpen (4.32 ERA) has been average at best in 2026.

CJ Abrams to Hit a Home Run (+319)

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams could be on the move at the trade deadline, but if he plays on Monday, he’s a great home run bet against Philly’s Aaron Nola.

This season, Nola has given up 26 home runs in 22 starts, posting a 5.61 ERA in the process. He’s given up seven home runs over his last four outings, and Abrams has been solid against Nola in his career, going 6-for-24 with a homer.

The Nationals star is hitting .287 with 28 home runs in 2026, including 23 homers against right-handed pitching. Abrams has a .301 batting average and a .992 OPS against righties, showing much more power than he does against southpaws.

On top of that, Abrams is hitting .360 with seven home runs over the last two weeks (13 games). He’s one of the hottest hitters in MLB right now and should at least produce a hit against the struggling Nola.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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