Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 3

Can Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs finally get a win in 2025?

The Chiefs are 0-2 and in danger already in the AFC heading into a Week 3 clash with the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football.

New York has yet to pick up a win in 2025, but it did play the Dallas Cowboys tough in Week 2, going to overtime before losing on a last-second field goal. Russell Wilson turned back the clock in that game, finding Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson for several long completions against a brutal Dallas secondary.

Things won’t be easy in Week 3 against the Chiefs, who are road favorites for this matchup in the Meadowlands.

Kansas City hasn’t been 0-2 in over 10 years, and Mahomes and Andy Reid would love to turn the season around in Week 3 before a Week 4 date with the Baltimore Ravens.

If you’re looking to bet on this game, you’ve come to the right place. The SI Betting team has been compiling picks and props for this matchup all week, and I’ve curated some of our favorites to help bettors make some decisions for this primetime matchup.

Let’s dive into the top picks for Chiefs vs. Giants!

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Giants

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110) vs. New York Giants – Iain MacMillan
Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey
Isiah Pacheco UNDER 41.5 Rushing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey
Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+145) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110) vs. New York Giants – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week:

The Kansas City Chiefs have looked bad in the first two weeks, but let's cut them a bit of slack, considering how their first two opponents were. The Chargers and the Eagles are tough teams to face, and now they get to face the lowly New York Giants. Let's also point out the Chiefs have a Net Yards per Play of +0.5 through the first two games, which is a better mark than they had last season when they went 15-2.

I'm not looking too far into Russell Wilson throwing for 450 yards against the Cowboys. We've seen enough from him the past few years to know that last week's performance was an anomaly. Despite having a far easier schedule to start the season, the Giants' advanced metrics are on par with the Chiefs, while ranking worse in Net Yards per Play at -0.3.

I'll lay the points on the Chiefs in a big bounce back spot on Sunday night.

Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Earlier today, I shared that Robinson was one of my favorite prop targets for this primetime matchup:

Robinson has been terrific to open the 2025 season, catching 14 of his 18 targets for 197 yards and a score in two games.

Robinson has been targeted at least eight times in each game, putting up 55 receiving yards in Week 1 and 142 in Week 2.

While I don’t expect another 100-yard day from Robinson, I do think he’s undervalued at this number on Sunday night. The Chiefs are just 27th in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense, and they’re allowing the 10th-most net yards per pass attempt in the league.

Robinson is too involved in this offense to fade at such a low number on Sunday.

Isiah Pacheco UNDER 41.5 Rushing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey

Another prop that I love on Sunday, I’m fading Isiah Pacheco after a brutal start to 2025:

It’s been a rough start to the season for Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, as he amassed just 47 rushing yards on 15 carries in two games (3.1 yards per carry).

Pacheco has fallen way short of this number in both of his matchup this season, and he’s coming off a 10-carry, 22-yard showing against a tough Eagles defensive line.

While the Giants are allowing 5.9 yards per carry this season – second-worst in the NFL – I’m not sold on Pacheco carrying a major workload on Sunday night.

He has split time with Kareem Hunt this season, playing just 54.5 percent of the Chiefs’ snaps. Even if Pacheco has better day efficiency wise, I’m not sure he’ll have enough touches to clear this line on Sunday.

Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey

In this week’s best anytime touchdown scorer picks for SNF, I shared why I’m still buying Kelce after his costly drop in Week 2:

Believe it or not, Travis Kelce should have two touchdown catches this season.

The star tight end caught one in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers, and he likely cost himself a score in Week 2 after bobbling a ball on the goal line that was eventually intercepted.

Still, he’s one of the most reliable targets in this offense, and Kelce should have a big role against a Giants offense that has been torched by opposing tight ends so far in 2025:

Week 1 vs. Zach Ertz: 3 catches, 26 yards, TD
Week 2 vs. Jake Ferguson: 9 catches, 78 yards

Mahomes has found Kelce in the red zone already in 2025, and I expect him to continue to trust his veteran tight end in Week 3.

Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+145) – Peter Dewey

One last anytime touchdown prop? Why not!

Malik Nabers is worth a look in this market after starting off on fire in 2025:

Nabers has been elite to open the 2025 season, catching 14 of his 25 targets for 238 yards and two scores.

Both of Nabers’ touchdowns came in Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys, but he’s received at least 12 targets from Russell Wilson in each game.

Now, Nabers takes on a Chiefs defense that is allowing the 10th-most net yards per pass attempt and ranks 27th in defensive EPA/Pass this season. KC allowed three scores to the Los Angeles Chargers through the air in Week 1, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nabers get loose for a long score in Week 3.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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