Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Preseason Week 1 (Bet Falcons as Underdogs vs. Broncos)

The first day of Week 1 of the NFL preseason is in the books and we have three more games to watch and bet on tonight.

If you're struggling to figure out who to bet on for tonight's games, you've come to the right place. I have a bet locked in for each of the three matchups, so let's dive into them.

NFL Best Bets Today for Preseason Week 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Falcons +4.5 (-112) vs. Broncos
Buccaneers +6 (-112) vs. Jets
Dolphins -3.5 (-108) vs. Commanders

Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction

Pick: Falcons +4.5 (-112)

Both teams plan to play their starters for a series, except for Bo Nix, and both coaches have near .500 preseason records. That leaves us with little edge when it comes to determining which side to bet on.

I think the Falcons are being underrated as home underdogs. They have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, including young talent on defense. I also think the Broncos are being overrated heading into the 2026 season after a year where late-game variance went their way almost every week. That overrated notion has followed them into the preseason, so 4.5 points is too much to lay on them on the road in this spot.

I'll take the point with Atlanta.

Buccaneers vs. Jets Prediction

Pick: Buccaneers +6 (-112)

The Jets are set as 6-point favorites in this game due to Aaron Glenn announcing that his starters will play at least a portion of the opening quarter, while the Buccaneers will be resting their top players. That would normally lead me to look at laying the points on the favorite, but the Jets are only playing their starters because of how bad they looked in their joint practice with the Bucs. That's bad news for a team that's already expected to be one of the worst in the NFL.

I'll take the points with Tampa Bay and hope we see a close game.

Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction

Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-108)

The No. 1 factor I consider when betting on NFL preseason is how coaches have historically handled exhibition games. Some coaches use it solely as an evaluation tool, while others try their best to get the win. Dan Quinn belongs to the former of the two categories, sporting a 7-19-1 record against the spread in his time as a head coach in Atlanta and Washington.

Meanwhile, Miami is a young team with a lot of players who feel they have something to prove. Willis getting playing time in this game should also help the Dolphins get off to a hot start.

I'll lay the points with the Dolphins.

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