Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 6 (Bet the OVER on Sunday Night Football)

Week 6 of the NFL season is here and we have a loaded slate of games to watch and bet on.

Four teams are on BYE, but that still leaves us with 12 Sunday games to place a wager on. In this article, I have a little bit of something for everyone, including a bet on a side, a total, and an underdog. Let's dive into them.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Jets +7.5 (-114) vs. Patriots
Bills -5.5 (-105) vs. Raiders
Cowboys vs. Patriots OVER 53.5 (-105)

Jets vs. Patriots Best Bet

The Jets may not be as bad as I thought they'd be this season. They aren't good, but they're ranked around the middle of the pack in the NFL across many metrics, including 20th in EPA per play, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 14th in net yards per play (+0.2).

Geno Smith has also been interesting this season. He hasn't been throwing the ball all over the field and racking up yards, but he's been accurate, ranking 10th in completion percentage over expected, and he has yet to throw an interception. Efficient play from your quarterback goes a long way in covering spreads as an underdog.

The Patriots are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders last week, but let's not pretend that all of their early-season problems have been solved. I'm not sure I'm ready to back them to cover a 7.5-point spread against a division rival this week.

Pick: Jets +7.5 (-114)

Bills vs. Raiders Best Bet

I think I was right about the Raiders when I picked the Patriots last week. This is a team that got off to a hot start, but not one we should view as legitimate contenders. Their defense is a decent unit, but they are still one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, and since they can't run the ball, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm, which is going to work far less often than it did the first four weeks of the season.

The Raiders' offense won't be able to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I'm happy to lay the points with the spread set below the magic number of seven.

Pick: Bills -5.5 (-105)

Cowboys vs. Packers Best Bet

My strategy for the Cowboys this season is fairly straightforward. If they're favored, bet against them; if they're getting points, take them, if it's close to a pick'em bet the OVER. Their defense is too bad to lay points on them, but their offense is too good to ever underestimate them. That's why, in this week's coin-flip game against the Packers, I'm going to bet the OVER, especially considering the Packers have a similar issue.

The two defenses in this game rank 24th and 32nd in opponent success rate, with the Cowboys also ranking 32nd in opponent EPA per play.

Let's sit back and root for points on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: OVER 53.5 (-105)

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