Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Texans vs. Patriots on Sunday in Divisional Round)

A trip to the AFC Championship is on the line on Sunday afternoon, as the Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots in the divisional round.

Both of these teams relied on defense in the wild card round to advance, as the Patriots allowed just three points to the Los Angeles Chargers and the Texans gave up just six points – and scored two defensive touchdowns – against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So, naturally, oddsmakers have set this game with the lowest total of the weekend.

MVP candidate Drake Maye and the Patriots are favored in this matchup, but the Houston defense (No. 1 in EPA/Play) has been dominant this season and the team has won 10 games in a row to reach the divisional round.

Does that streak continue on Sunday afternoon?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been sharing picks for this game, and I’ve compiled some of our favorites all into one spot to help bettors make the most of this matchup.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Patriots

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Texans +3 (+100) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan
Christian Kirk OVER 3.5 Receptions (-126) – Peter Dewey
Drake Maye UNDER 225.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

Houston Texans +3 (+100) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for every divisional round game in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column, and he’s taking the Texans to cover on Sunday:

The Texans' defense is good enough to lead them all the way to a Super Bowl. Second in the NFL in DVOA, opponent EPA, and opponent success rate. Their offense has struggled against good defenses themselves, but now they face a Patriots' defense that's in the bottom 10 in a lot of categories.

Despite beating the Chargers last week, the Patriots' offense struggled against one of the best defenses they've faced all season. Now they face an even better defense in the Texans. They may be able to squeak out a win, but I'll take the side with the best defense in football that's getting three points.

Christian Kirk OVER 3.5 Receptions (-126) – Peter Dewey

Nico Collins is dealing with a concussion ahead of this matchup, which could set up a massive role for Christian Kirk on Sunday.

The veteran receiver only made 28 catches across 13 appearances in the regular season, but he was awesome against the Steelers in the divisional round.

Kirk caught eight passes for 144 yards and a score, receiving nine targets from C.J. Stroud despite playing just 55.9 percent of the Texans’ snaps.

While I’m not expecting another 100-yard day from Kirk, it’s clear that he’s a reliable target for Stroud that could end up as the No. 1 option in the passing game once again. Kirk has seven games this season (including the playoffs) with at least three catches, so I don’t think this number is too high for the former second-round pick on Sunday.

Drake Maye UNDER 225.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

This week, MacMillan shared his five favorite props for the divisional round in his Player Prop Countdown, and he’s fading Drake Maye in this game:

Drake Maye has faced easy defense after easy defense this season. The only two tough defenses he's had to face were the Cleveland Browns, which was a home game for the Patriots, and the Chargers last week, where he completed just 58.6% of passes.

Maye could be in for a rude awakening in the Divisional Round. The Texans' defense ranks first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback success rate, and third in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.7 yards per throw. The Texans have also given up just 181.3 passing yards per game.

Even if you think Drake Maye is an elite quarterback in the NFL, do you trust his receivers to create separation against this Houston secondary? I certainly don't.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.