Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 7 (Bet on Jaylen Warren in France)

Bet on Jaylen Warren to go over his rushing yards prop in Week 7 against the Saints. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We have 12 NFL games to watch and bet on today, starting with a showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints in France, and ending with a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks.

Let's take a look at three of my favorite prop bets for today's games.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Jaylen Warren 75+ Rushing Yards (+130)
• Bo Nix OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
• Sam Darnold UNDER 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Jaylen Warren 75+ Rushing Yards (+130)

The No. 1 thing to watch for in the Steelers vs. Saints game in France is the New Orleans run defense. They rank dead last in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. Now they have to face Jaylen Warren, who has been extremely effective so far this NFL season, averaging a blistering 5.5 yards per carry. The Steelers would be smart to stick to the ground and hand it to their No. 1 running back early and often in this game.

Bo Nix OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

I understand the Bo Nix narrative heading into this week, but we have to cut him a little bit of slack. He has had to face a murderers' row of defenses this season, including the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. He now gets to face by far the easiest defense he's faced this season.

The Cardinals rank 30th in opponent dropback EPA, 25th in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed 16 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. At plus-money, I'll jump all over him to throw for at least two scores on Sunday.

Sam Darnold UNDER 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I don't know if it's quite time to push the panic button in Seattle, but Sam Darnold has not looked like the Sam Darnold from a year ago. He's just 19th in the NFL in completion percentage over expected, and he has thrown for over 250 yards just twice; in both those games, he had 45+ pass attempts.

Now he has to face a Chiefs' defense that ranks fourth in the league in opponent dropback EPA. It may be time to sell some of our Darnold stock.

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