Bills vs. Browns Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Can Buffalo Cover Big Spread?)

Josh Allen and the Bills are big road favorites in Cleveland.

Josh Allen and the Bills are big road favorites in Cleveland. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills have won three straight games, although there were some iffy moments in each of the last two against the Bengals and Patriots. That shouldn’t be the case when they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns on Sunday afternoon.

The Browns have lost three in a row, including a 31-3 defeat against the Bears last week, and have just one win in their last seven games.

The oddsmakers have the Bills as big road favorites at the best betting sites for this matchup.

This season, the SI Betting team is sharing a final score prediction for every game as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 16 matchup.

Bills vs. Browns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -10 (-110)
• Browns +10 (-110)

Moneyline

• Bills: -625
• Browns: +455

Total

• 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The spread hasn’t moved from the -10 since the odds opened for this one, with the total also staying put at 42.5.

Can the Bills cover as big favorites in Cleveland?

Bills vs. Browns Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his weekly Road to 272 Bets column:

The Browns' run defense has arguably been the best in the NFL this season. They rank third in opponent rush EPA and first in opponent success rate, and are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. If that holds true in this game, they have a chance to keep things close with the Bills. 41.58% of the Bills' offensive yards come from running the football, the fourth most in the NFL. If they struggle to get the ball moving on the ground in Cleveland, the Browns may be in this game longer than people expect.

I also struggle to lay this many points on a Bills team whose defense has been bad all season long, ranking 23rd in both defensive DVOA and opponent yards per play, allowing 5.6 yards per snap.

Pick: Browns +10 (+100) via Caesars

Laying 10 points in today’s NFL is tough, especially for a Bills team that has had to come from behind to win its last two games. While the Browns aren’t at the level of the Patriots or even a Joe Burrow-led Bengals team, they’re still a strong defensive team that can stay in games.

The Browns are 4-2 against the spread at home, including 3-1 as home underdogs. This should be a close enough game in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 23, Browns 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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