Braves vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 29 (Game 1)

A doubleheader is set for Wednesday, July 29 in New York, as the New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves for their final two games of this three-game set.

New York scored 14 runs in an upset win on Monday night, but the weather stopped the Mets from keeping the momentum going on Tuesday. Now, these division rivals will play at 1:10 p.m. EST and 7:10 p.m. EST on Wednesday.

Game 1 features an interesting pitching matchup, as 23-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver is set to return to the Braves’ rotation for the first time since May 2025 when he tore his UCL. The right-hander had a 3.86 ERA in nine starts in 2025 before going down with the season-ending injury.

New York will counter with veteran left-hander Sean Manaea, who is coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing just one run across six frames in a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Oddsmakers have set Atlanta as a slight favorite on the road, but should bettors trust the Braves with Smith-Shawver making his season debut?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 of this doubleheader.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves -1.5 (+134)
Mets +1.5 (-162)

Moneyline

Braves: -127
Mets: +105

Total

8 (Over -118/Under -102)

Braves vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Atlanta: AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
New York: Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.52 ERA)

Braves vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 29
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): BravesVision, SNY
Braves record: 62-44
Mets record: 45-62

Braves vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Hits (-165)

This season, Austin Riley is hitting just .216 for the Braves, but he’s been better since the All-Star break, posting a .286 batting average and .857 OPS over the last two weeks (11 games).

The third baseman has also been a little more effective against left-handed pitching (.224 batting average) this season and in his MLB career.

I’m buying him as an under-the-radar prop option on Wednesday against Manaea, who ranks in the 32nd percentile in expected batting average against. The lefty has also struggled against Riley in his career, allowing the Braves third baseman to go 3-for-8 with a home run.

Since we only need one hit from Riley to cash this prop, I think we’re getting some pretty solid value against a pitcher that he’s fared well against in his career.

Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Manaea began the season coming out of the bullpen, but he’s shifted into the starting rotation over his last eight appearances.

The Mets are 2-6 in the lefty’s starts, and they’re just 5-17 overall when he takes the mound. Now, the record isn’t fair to Manaea for his games out of the pen, but New York has been awful all season long, sitting at 17 games under .500 including a shaky 23-30 mark at home.

Smith-Shawver may not work deep into this game since its his first MLB start in over a year, but he showed some serious promise in 2025 before getting injured. Plus, the Braves have the third-best bullpen ERA (3.46) in baseball this season.

I won’t read too much into New York’s Game 1 win.

Pick: Braves Moneyline (-127 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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