Braves vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 7

New York is favored in Friday's series opener with Max Fried on the mound.

The New York Yankees and starting pitcher Max Fried are favored on Aug. 7. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Two teams with World Series expectations are set to square off at Yankee Stadium on Friday night, as the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves take on the New York Yankees.

This is a huge series for the Yankees, as they’re just a half game ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the top wild card spot in the American League and could find themselves falling to the No. 2 spot if they lose this series. 

Boston has been red hot since July and it’s on an eight-game winning streak heading into Friday’s action. 

Meanwhile, the Braves have opened up an 8.5-game lead in the NL East and are in the mix for the best record in baseball. Atlanta has one of the best pitching staffs in MLB, and it added Tyler Mahle (tonight’s starter) at the deadline. 

Mahle will make his Braves debut against a former Brave in New York lefty Max Fried (3.12 ERA this season). 

Fried threw 5.1 innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Chicago Cubs in his last start.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as these two contenders get to see how they match up ahead of the playoffs. 

Braves vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Braves +1.5 (-162)
• Yankees -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline

• Braves: +137
• Yankees: -147

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Braves vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Atlanta: Tyler Mahle (3-9, 5.13 ERA)
• New York: Max Fried (4-3, 3.12 ERA)

Braves vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Aug. 7
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, BravesVision, YES Network
• Braves record: 70-45
• Yankees record: 64-51

Braves vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+351)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why Garcia is worth a look at Yankee Stadium: 

The New York Yankees added Luis Garcia Jr. to their roster at the trade deadline, and the former Washington Nationals first baseman led the National League in slugging percentage before he was dealt.

Garcia has already homered in a Yankee uniform, and he has an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves – a team he faced a lot in Washington – on Friday night.

The Braves are starting right-hander Tyler Mahle, who posted a 5.13 ERA and allowed 14 home runs in 18 appearances with the San Francisco Giants before he was dealt to Atlanta at the deadline.

Mahle was tagged for five runs and a homer in his first start this month. 

Garcia is just 1-for-6 against Mahle in his career, but the Yankees slugger is hitting .297 with 21 home runs and a .925 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Plus, he has a .964 OPS, a .304 batting average and three homers over the last two weeks (12 games). 

With the short porch at Yankee Stadium, Garcia could see his home run numbers skyrocket over the final two months of the regular season. 

Braves vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

These two teams are No. 1 (New York) and No. 5 (Atlanta) in team ERA this season, 

Over the last 30 days, New York’s offense has fallen off a cliff, ranking dead last in MLB in batting average and in the bottom 10 in the league in both runs scored and OPS. 

On top of that, the Yankees have now hit the UNDEr in 55.9 percent of their games – the fourth-highest mark in MLB.

The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball, but they’re pretty average on offense, ranking 14th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) despite the fact that they’re in the top 10 in the league in runs scored, OPS and batting average. 

With Fried on the mound for New York, I think the Atlanta offense will be held in check. Fried ranks in the 98th percentile in expected ERA and the 94th percentile in expected BAA in the 2026 season. 

Plus, Mahle’s advanced numbers are much better than his actual numbers, as his expected ERA is all the way down at 4.07 in 2026. He may improve playing with a better team around him in Atlanta.

This total is a touch too high on Friday, especially if the New York offense remains dormant. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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