Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 11

The San Diego Padres are knocking on the door of a playoff spot in the National League, and they beat the Milwaukee Brewers in their series opener on Monday to remain just one game out of a wild card spot.

Now, the Padres are set as underdogs at home in Game 2, as Milwaukee has lefty Kyle Harrison (2.84 ERA) on the mound against Padres veteran Walker Buehler (5.07 ERA).

San Diego has a 16-7 record with Buehler on the mound this season, but his advanced numbers are extremely concerning. The right-hander ranks in the 35th percentile in expected ERA and the 34th percentile in expected BAA, and he’s been hit hard since July 1.

So, should bettors expect a bounce back from the Brew Crew on the road?

I’m eyeing a player prop for Harrison and a bet on the winner of this game on Tuesday night.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Brewers -1.5 (+133)
Padres +1.5 (-161)

Moneyline

Brewers: -118
Padres: +110

Total

7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Brewers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Milwaukee: Kyle Harrison (9-2, 2.84 ERA)
San Diego: Walker Buehler (6-5, 5.07 ERA)

Brewers vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 11
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Padres.TV/Brewers.TV
Brewers record: 74-45
Padres record: 63-57

Brewers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

Kyle Harrison 5+ Strikeouts (-180)

Kyle Harrison returned from an injured list stint to toss five innings of one-hit, 10-strikeout ball back on Aug. 5, and he may be a little undervalued in this market against the Padres.

San Diego does rank in the top half of the league in K’s per game, but it is still averaging over eight per night this season.

So, Harrison should be in the mix to reach at least five strikeouts, a number he’s hit in 11 of his 18 outings in the 2026 season.

The lefty has 111 strikeouts in 88.2 innings of work, ranking in the 94th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 80th percentile in whiff percentage this season. He’s a great bet after 10 of the 15 batters he retired in his return were via the punchout.

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

San Diego won the series opener between these teams on Monday, but this pitching matchup tilts too far towards the Brewers on Tuesday night.

Harrison has pitched extremely well in his first season in Milwaukee, posting a 2.84 ERA while leading the team to a 13-5 record in his 18 appearances. Not only does Harrison have some impressive strikeout numbers (mentioned above), but he also ranks in the 89th percentile in expected ERA and the 77th percentile in expected batting average against.

I would much rather bet on Harrison than Buehler, who has been awful since the start of July.

Over his last seven starts, Buehler has an 8.31 ERA, allowing 37 hits, eight home runs and 19 walks in just 30.1 innings of work. The Padres are somehow 5-2 in those outings, but I don’t see that continuing against a Brewers team that is one of the best in baseball on the road.

Milwaukee ranks eighth in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus, and it should get to Buehler in the early innings.

The Padres’ offense has come around as of late, but this is too lopsided of a pitching matchup to take San Diego as a home dog.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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