Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 15

The Milwaukee Brewers are locked into a playoff spot in the National League, and they’re favored on Tuesday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates with NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski (1.95 ERA) on the mound.

Pittsburgh remains seven games out of a playoff spot in the NL, but it has won seven of its last 10 games to get back to .500 this season. The Pirates also have a positive run differential and a lot to build upon for next season with a young pitching staff.

Oddsmakers have set the Pirates as +213 underdogs at home against Misiorowski, even though they scored three runs against him in a win back in April.

The Brewers ace sits in the 99th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected BAA, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage this season.

He’ll take on Pirates reliever Lake Bachar (3.52 ERA), who will work as an opener for the sixth time since the beginning of August.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series opener on Sept. 15.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Brewers -1.5 (-143)
Pirates +1.5 (+119)

Moneyline

Brewers: -265
Pirates: +213

Total

7.5 (Over -111/Under -109)

Brewers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Milwaukee: Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.95 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Lake Bachar (1-3, 3.52 ERA)

Brewers vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 15
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): Brewers.TV/MLB.TV
Brewers record: 93-57
Pirates record: 75-75

Brewers vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-182)

I am shocked that we’re able to get this earned runs prop at higher than 0.5 for Misiorowski, who has an expected ERA of 2.10 and an actual ERA of 1.95 this season.

The Pirates have scored the fewest runs in MLB over the last 30 days, and I don’t expect their offensive fortune to change against arguably the best pitcher in MLB.

Misiorowski has allowed one or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 27 outings this season, and he’s coming off 6.1 innings of one-run ball in a win over the Chicago Cubs. I’m buying him in this matchup with Milwaukee looking to lock up the top spot in the National League.

Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Why not take a NRFI bet in this NL Central clash?

This season, Misiorowski actually has a 2.67 ERA in the first inning (10 runs allowed), but I’m buying him against a Pittsburgh offense that has fallen off a cliff over the last month.

The Pirates are dead last in runs scored, 24th in batting average and 28th in OPS over the last 30 days, looking like a much different team than the one that scored three runs against the Brewers ace back on April 25.

Pittsburgh has dropped out of the top half of the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) for the entire season, sitting in 16th ahead of this series opener.

On the Pirates side, I’m high on Bachar as an opener, as he’s given up just two total runs in his last five appearances as an opener. This season, the right-hander ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average against and the 75th percentile in expected ERA.

The NRFI has hit in at least 68 percent of both of these teams games in 2026, so I don’t mind laying this price with the soon-to-be NL Cy Young on the mound.

Pick: No Run First Inning (-150 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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