Broncos vs. Chiefs Best NFL Prop Bets for Monday Night Football in Week 1 (Bet on Bo Nix, Fade Patrick Mahomes)

Patrick Mahomes is back, and the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves as favorites at home on Monday Night Football against Box Nix and the Denver Broncos.

These two division rivals both have their sights set on the playoffs, and Monday’s season opener should be a good litmus test for how they stack up in a loaded AFC West.

There are a ton of ways to bet on this Monday night matchup, but the prop market may be the most exciting. Player props are a great way to get in on the action without relying on the final score to decide the bet.

This game has a ton of star players on offense from Denver’s Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle to Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Kenneth Walker III.

Denver was one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2025, ranking seventh in EPA/Play, but will it slow down Mahomes in his first game back from a torn ACL?

Here’s a breakdown of three prop bets that I’m targeting for Monday night’s AFC West showdown.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bo Nix OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-113)
Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-121)
Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+113)

Bo Nix OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-113)

The Chiefs’ defense was pretty solid against the pass in the 2025 season, ranking 12th in EPA/Pass and eighth in passing yards allowed.

However, the team traded away star corner Trent McDuffie this offseason and let Jaylen Watson walk in free agency. So, the team is remaking the secondary on the fly ahead of this Week 1 matchup against Denver.

I think this could be a rough start for the young Chiefs defense, and Denver already threw the ball a ton in 2025 with Nix attempting 35 or more passes in 10 of his 17 regular season games, including both against Kansas City.

Sean Payton is going to want to attack this Kansas City secondary with Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton, and Nix is coming off a season where he averaged 36 attempts per game.

Plus, if the Broncos fall behind in this matchup – they are underdogs – they'll likely go to the air a ton in the second half.

Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-121)

Rashee Rice missed time in the 2025 season due to legal issues and injury, but he’s healthy coming into Week 1 against Denver, a team he had six catches for 38 yards against in a Week 11 loss.

The Denver pass defense is elite with Pat Surtain II leading the way, but Rice has been Mahomes’ go-to target when he has been in the lineup the last few years.

During the 2025 season, Rice had six or more receptions in six of his eight games, drawing 78 targets (nearly 10 a game). He should have a pretty big workload with the rest of the Kansas City receiving core either aging (Travis Kelce) or still unproven.

Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+113)

Last season, Mahomes tossed 11 interceptions in 14 games, including a pick against the Broncos.

Denver’s secondary is one of the best in the sport, and it picked off Josh Allen several times in a playoff win in the divisional round.

Overall, the Broncos finished seventh in the league in EPA/Pass even though they ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in interception percentage.

The addition of Walker should improve the Kansas City running game, but I still think this team is going to need Mahomes to make a ton of plays through the air to win this matchup. Mahomes threw 45 times in a loss to Denver last season, and if he pushed 40 attempts again, I think the +113 price for him to get picked is pretty favorable.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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