Broncos vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 17 (Can Denver Cover as Favorite?)

The Broncos are just 2-8 against the spread as favorites this season.

The Denver Broncos and head coach Sean Payton are favored in Week 17. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are still the No. 1 seed in the AFC entering a Christmas Day matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but they may need to win out to secure the top spot after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16.

Denver has games against Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers remaining, and it's a massive favorite against a Chiefs team that has gone through a brutal 2025 season to date. 

Kansas City lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in Week 15 and was eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chargers. Then, the Chiefs lost back Gardner Minshew to a knee injury as well in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans.

So, it’s not a surprise that oddsmakers are expecting a loss from KC in this AFC West battle.

Denver has struggled to cover the spread as a favorite this season, but this is a must-win for the Broncos as they attempt to lock up the AFC West and the top seed in the conference over the final two weeks of the regular season.

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting the final score of games as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets. Christmas Day is no different, so let’s take a look at how I’m leaning for this division battle on Thursday night.  

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Broncos -13.5 (-108) 
• Chiefs +13.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Broncos: -1050
• Chiefs: +675

Total

• 36.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Broncos opened up as 10.5-point favorites in this matchup, but that line has shifted quite a bit over the last few days. Denver is now favored by 13.5 points at DraftKings, and it makes sense with the Chiefs set to turn to Chris Oladokun at quarterback.

Denver knocked off the Chiefs earlier this season, and this could be a prime bounce-back spot for Sean Payton’s group after a loss to Jacksonville. However, the Broncos are just 2-8 against the spread as a favorite in 2025. 

Broncos vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

The Chiefs are spiraling, but I still think they have too much talent and are coached too well to lay 10.5 points against them when they're playing on their home field. Chris Oladokun also deserves some credit. He completed 68.8% of passes for 111 yards in relief for Gardner Minshew on Sunday against the Titans. If he can continue to be that efficient this week, he may have what it takes to keep this game within reach.

The Broncos' defense is an overrated unit, and there are ways to exploit them, including targeting the opposite side of the field that Patrick Surtain is defending. Teams have figured that out and utilized that strategy in recent weeks. This game will be closer than some people expect.

While I thought the Broncos would be the right side when this spread initially started at 10.5, I actually think there could be some value in betting on the Chiefs to cover now that the line has moved two more points in favor of Denver. 

Kansas City didn’t look good in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans, but the Broncos have struggled to get stops in recent weeks and are now ninth in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense after ranking in the top five for most of the season.

Plus, Denver’s putrid ATS record as a favorite makes it tough to lay the points with the Broncos on the road – especially on a short week. 

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.