Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season closes out with an AFC West battle on Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Both of these teams are favored in the odds to make the playoffs in the 2026 season, but there are some questions for both teams as well.

Kansas City is coming off a down year with Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) missing the end of the season, yet oddsmakers have it atop the odds to win the AFC West and as one of the leading AFC teams to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ health and mobility will be key for an offense that did add Kenneth Walker III in the offseason.

Meanwhile, Denver is coming off an AFC Championship Game berth where Bo Nix (broken ankle) was unable to play. The Broncos easily could have been in the Super Bowl after earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC, yet oddsmakers have them much further down the odds board in 2026.

Sean Payton’s team retained a ton of key talent and added wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to an offense that was one of the most pass-heavy attacks in the NFL last season.

In Week 1, Denver is a three-point road underdog against a Chiefs team that was 5-3-1 against the spread at home in 2025. Can Mahomes and Co. get the season started off on the right foot against a division rival?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch, injury report, betting trends and my prediction for the final game in Week 1.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Broncos +3 (-120)
Chiefs -3 (+100)

Moneyline

Broncos: +124
Chiefs: -148

Total

43.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Broncos vs. Chiefs How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 14
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ABC
Broncos record: 0-0
Chiefs record: 0-0

Broncos vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Broncos Injury Report

Jonathon Cooper – CEL
Marvin Mims Jr. – questionable
Riley Moss – questionable
Nick Gargiulo – PUP

Chiefs Injury Report

Josh Simmons – questionable
R Mason Thomas – questionable
Patrick Mahomes – on track to play

Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

The Broncos were 9-9-1 against the spread in the 2025 season.
The Chiefs were 6-10-1 against the spread in the 2025 season.
Kansas City was 5-3-1 against the spread at home in 2025.
Denver was 2-4-1 against the spread on the road in 2025.
The Broncos were 5-0-1 against the spread as underdogs in 2025.
The UNDER was 13-4 in Kansas City’s games in 2025.
The UNDER was 11-8 in Denver’s games in 2025.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Key Player to Watch

Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs

All eyes are going to be on Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, as he’s set to return after suffering a torn ACL during the 2025 season.

Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 6-8 record in 14 starts last season, which was by far the most disappointing season of his career from a record standpoint. The three-time Super Bowl MVP was forced to do a lot with legs, and it’ll be interesting if he’s able to rely on his running early on this season.

In 2025, Mahomes threw for 3,587 yards, 22 scores and 11 picks while completing 62.7 percent of his passes. His completion percentage was the lowest of his career, and he averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt.

Still, the Chiefs star added a career-high 422 yards and five scores on the ground, and he remains in the mix for the title of “best quarterback in the NFL.” This is a tough test for him against a great Denver pass rush in Week 1.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

The Broncos finished with the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season, and they dominated as underdogs, covering the spread in five games and pushing in the other.

There were only two teams in the NFL that finished last season in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense – Denver and New England. That’s pretty elite company, and I think the Broncos may be a little undervalued heading into this season.

Denver is sitting behind the Chiefs and Chargers in both the AFC West odds and the odds to win the Super Bowl.

Denver’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, and it’ll be interesting to see just how mobile Mahomes is in his first game back from a torn ACL.

Plus, Denver has the best offensive line in the sport and a new weapon on the outside in Jaylen Waddle. I would’ve had the spread in this game close to 1.5 or 2, and I believe Denver has a chance to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

I’ll gladly take the three points on Monday night, and I think there’s a case to be made for Denver to pull off an upset on Monday.

Pick: Broncos +3 (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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