Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5

Thursday Night Football in Week 5 features an interesting NFC matchup with the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys hosting the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Dallas is coming off a massive win on the road against the Houston Texans, riding a huge game from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to get back to .500. Dallas was an underdog in that matchup, but it’s now heavily favored at home against a Tampa Bay team that currently has its season hanging in the balance.

The Bucs are 0-4 and facing an uphill climb in the NFC South, and they could be without Baker Mayfield (thumb) for several weeks. He missed Week 3, and the Bucs scored just 14 points in a loss against Green Bay with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels under center.

Schefter: Baker Mayfield (right thumb) expected to miss 3-6 weeks.
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 4, 2026

Daniels didn’t play terribly against Green Bay, but the Tampa Bay offense remains in the bottom three in the league in EPA/Play. That won’t cut it against a Dallas team that has one of the five-best offenses in the league.

Tampa Bay has yet to cover the spread in the 2026 season, making it a risky bet with a backup quarterback leading the way.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch, betting trends, injuries and my pick for the first game in Week 5.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Bucs +10 (-110)
Cowboys -10 (-110)

Moneyline

Bucs: +455
Cowboys: -625

Total

47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Bucs record: 0-4
Cowboys record: 2-2

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Injury Reports

Bucs Injury Report

SirVocea Dennis – questionable
Rueben Bain Jr. – questionable
Baker Mayfield – doubtful

Cowboys Injury Report

DeMarvion Overshown – questionable
Cobie Durant – questionable
Jonathan Bullard – IR
Jalen Thompson – IR

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the spread this season.
Dallas is 3-1 against the spread this season.
Dallas is 1-0 against the spread when favored at home.
Tampa Bay is 0-1 against the spread as road underdog this season.
The Bucs are 0-1 with Jalon Daniels as the starter in 2026.
The OVER is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ games this season.
The OVER is 2-2 in the Bucs’ games this season.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Key Player to Watch

CeeDee Lamb, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb had a monster game in Week 4, catching 17 passes (on 21 target) for 189 yards and a touchdown, including the go-ahead score to beat Houston.

Lamb was by far the No. 1 option on offense – even though he only scored once – and Dak Prescott has looked his way a ton already this season. Through four games, Lamb has been targeted 46 times, reeling in 37 passes for almost 500 yards.

The Tampa Bay defense has been around league average in EPA/Pass, but it may struggle to contain Lamb and this Dallas offense, which has one of the five-best attacks in the league.

Lamb may not get another 21 targets, but he’s caught at least five passes in every game this season.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

The OVER has hit in every game for Dallas this season, and it profiles as the perfect OVER team.

The Cowboys are one of the three-worst teams in the league in EPA/Play on defense, and they’re a top-five team in EPA/Play on offense. So, Dallas can put up points, but it has struggled to stop anyone in 2026.

While the Bucs may struggle to move the ball with Daniels under center, they still scored 14 points in Week 4 and had chances in the red zone all game long. Green Bay is a better defensive team than Dallas, which has allowed 20 or more points in every game and 28 or more points in three of four games.

Tampa Bay’s offense is a bottom-three unit in EPA/Play this season, but it may be able to run the ball on a Dallas team that entered Week 4 allowing 5.0 yards per carry in 2026.

I’m pretty confident that Prescott and Co. will be in the vicinity of 30 points, which means Tampa Bay doesn’t have to do all the heavy lifting to go OVER this total.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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