Buccaneers vs. Panthers Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Bet on an Upset?)

The Panthers are 7-4 against the spread as an underdog this season.

The Carolina Panthers and quarterback Bryce Young are underdogs in Week 16. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Through 15 weeks, the NFC South is tied up, and the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play twice over the final three weeks of the regular season to determine the winner.

Carolina is at home in Week 16, but it is set as an underdog after losing to the New Orleans Saints with a chance to take the division lead in Week 15. The Panthers are 7-4 against the spread as underdogs this season, but they have struggled when favored.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have blown a 5-1 start to the season, going 2-6 in their last eight games. Baker Mayfield and company have slipped majorly in some key offensive statistics, and they blew a lead against Atlanta on Thursday night in Week 15. 

Can the Bucs finally bounce back? Oddsmakers seem to think so, setting them as massive favorites to win the NFC South ahead of this matchup. 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been sharing final score predictions for games in the NFL, and this week is no different! These predictions are a fun way for us to predict the score while also giving bettors our thoughts on the spread and total.

So, here’s a look at how I’m betting on this massive NFC South clash on Sunday. 

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Buccaneers -3 (-108)
• Panthers +3 (-112)

Moneyline

• Buccaneers: -155
• Panthers: +130

Total

• 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Bucs opened as 1.5-point favorites in this game, but that line has moved all the way up to Tampa Bay -3, despite the fact that it has lost five of its last seven games. 

Tampa Bay is only 2-5 against the spread as a favorite this season while the Panthers are 7-4 against the numbers as an underdog. It’s interesting to see this line move so much towards Tampa Bay on the road. 

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Panthers to cover the spread: 

Not enough people have fully accepted how bad the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right now. Heading into Week 16, they rank 29th in net yards per play (-0.8), 26th in success rate, and 21st in opponent success rate. The Panthers outrank them in all three of their categories, and now they're getting a field goal's worth of points on the home field.

Lost in all this has been how truly bad Baker Mayfield has played in the second half of the season. Of quarterbacks with 100+ throws since Week 8, Baker Mayfield ranks 33rd in quarterback efficiency, ranking only above J.J. McCarthy and Shedeur Sanders in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected. Now, you want me to lay a field goal on him on the road? Not a chance.

This is my favorite upset pick of the week, as I think Carolina can win this game at home, where it is 4-2 against the spread this season. The Panthers have also at least covered in seven of their 11 games as underdogs. 

So, I wouldn’t be shocked if Carolina keeps this game within a possession, and the Bucs’ offense has been extremely concerning as of late. Tampa Bay has slipped behind the Panthers in EPA/Play on offense (now 24th), and the Bucs are also just 18th in the league in EPA/Play on defense. The Panthers also outrank Tampa Bay in yards per play defensively, and the Bucs have covered in just two of seven games as a favorite. 

Final Score Prediction: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 16

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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