Buffalo Bills Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Expect Another Strong Season in Buffalo)

You could copy and paste any Buffalo Bills' season in the Josh Allen era, and you'd struggle to find the difference. Reach 11+ wins, Josh Allen plays at an MVP level, but then they fail to live up to expectations in the postseason. Last year was more of the same for the Buffalo faithful, posting a 12-5 record and then losing in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, this time to the Denver Broncos.

It was the third straight postseason loss by three points, and the third overtime playoff loss in the Allen era. Management had seen enough this time around, leading to the firing of head coach Sean McDermott. Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, has been promoted to head coach. Is that enough to get the Bills over the hump?

Let's take a look at their win projection for the 2026 campaign.

2026 Buffalo Bills Win Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 10.5 Wins (-120)
UNDER 10.5 (+100)

The Bills' win total is set at 10.5 for the upcoming season, with the OVER set at -120 odds, giving them an implied probability of 54.55% of going 11-6 or better. The Bills have reached 11+ wins in six straight seasons. The last time they didn't reach that number was in 2019, before the expansion to a 17-game season. That year, the Bills finished 10-6, good enough for a wild-card berth, which ended in a 22-19 overtime loss to the Houston Texans.

Buffalo will once again lean on its rushing attack, which led the NFL last season. James Cook and Allen are a terrifying one-two punch for opposing defenses, and despite losing guard David Edwards in the offseason, they should once again be one of the best rushing attacks in the league.

Allen has a new weapon to throw to this season, as the Bills acquired DJ Moore from the Chicago Bears this offseason. That will not only give Allen a primary target, but should also open things up for Khalil Shakir in the slot.

The biggest question mark for the Bills will be their defense. They're switching to a 3-4 this season, so it may take a few weeks for the personnel to adjust to the new system fully. The good news is the Bills get Ed Oliver back healthy this year, which will make a significant impact on the defensive line.

The Bills will benefit from an easier schedule this season, the bright side of finishing second to the Patriots in the AFC East last year. They have the 14th-easiest schedule based on their opponents' projected win totals.

I see no reason to believe the Bills won't reach 11 wins for a seventh straight season.

Prediction. OVER 10.5 Wins (-120) via DraftKings

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